Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSpezia to win ✓59% · @1.73
Double chanceSpezia or draw ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.22
Spezia vs Vado preview and prediction
The match
Spezia host Vado in the Coppa Italia Serie C on Wednesday 2 September, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stadio Alberto Picco.
Form guide
Spezia's last 5: WDWDD Most recently they beat Campobasso FC 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Vado's last 5: DWDLW Most recently they drew with Pianese 0–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.2 for Spezia and 1.1 for Vado. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 57% and both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Spezia 59%, draw 24%, Vado 16%.
Safer route: Spezia or draw (84%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 1.90 – 57% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Spezia 2–1 Vado. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spezia59%fair 1.68 · @1.73
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.70
Vado16%fair 6.08 · @3.80
3.34Expected goals
2.20Spezia xG
1.13Vado xG
55%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–09%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Spezia 2.2 – 1.1 Vado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spezia to win✓
59%
1.68
1.73
Double chance
Spezia or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
1.90 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.33
Half-time result
Spezia ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spezia / FT Spezia✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.22
–
Form
Spezia – last 6
WDWDDD
29 Aug
vs Campobasso FC
1–0
W
23 Aug
@ Grosseto
1–1
D
16 Aug
vs Torres
4–1
W
1 Aug
@ Empoli
1–1
D
8 May
@ Pescara
1–1
D
1 May
vs Venezia
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Vado – last 6
DWDLWL
28 Aug
@ Pianese
0–0
D
21 Aug
vs Atalanta II
2–0
W
14 Aug
vs Inter U23
1–1
D
6 Jun
vs Scafatese
0–6
L
30 May
vs Barletta
2–0
W
24 May
@ Barletta
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spezia and Vado.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Spezia vs Vado?
On our numbers Spezia have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vado 16%.
How many goals will there be in Spezia vs Vado?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spezia vs Vado?
Our predicted score is Spezia 2–1 Vado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Spezia vs Vado?
Spezia vs Vado (Coppa Italia Serie C) kicks off on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Alberto Picco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Gubbio5
Vis Pesaro0
Guidonia Montecelio 1937
Latina
Athletic Carpi1
PRO Vercelli1
Arzignano Valchiampo2
Dolomiti Bellunesi2
Sorrento1
Cosenza0
Catania0
Savoia3
Team Altamura2
Sambenedettese2