Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio prediction & analysis
68%
Footrivo pick
Ternana to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.72 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.72Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultTernana to win ✓68% · @1.72
Double chanceTernana or draw ✓89% · fair 1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.74
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.22
Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone E sees Ternana take on Montevarchi Calcio on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadio Libero Liberati. Ternana are 3rd with 21 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Montevarchi Calcio sit 9th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Ternana's last 5: DWLDL Most recently they drew with Scandicci 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Montevarchi Calcio's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Progresso 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.9 for Ternana and 0.6 for Montevarchi Calcio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ternana 68%, draw 22%, Montevarchi Calcio 11%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.74.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ternana to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.72, above our fair price of 1.48, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ternana 1–0 Montevarchi Calcio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ternana68%fair 1.48 · @1.72
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.83
Montevarchi Calcio11%fair 9.40 · @4.80
2.45Expected goals
1.86Ternana xG
0.59Montevarchi Calcio xG
50%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–015%
1–19%
3–09%
2–19%
0–09%
From our goals model: Ternana 1.9 – 0.6 Montevarchi Calcio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ternana to win✓
68%
1.48
1.72 ▲
Double chance
Ternana or draw✓
89%
1.12
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.74
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.74
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Ternana ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ternana / FT Ternana✓
43%
2.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.22
–
Form
Ternana – last 6
DWLDLL
27 Sep
@ Scandicci
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Tau Altopascio
3–0
W
16 Sep
@ Mezzolara
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Gavorrano
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Prato
0–1
L
26 Apr
vs Pianese
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Montevarchi Calcio – last 6
WLDWLD
27 Sep
vs Progresso
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Robur Siena
0–3
L
16 Sep
@ Seravezza
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Tau Altopascio
4–1
W
6 Sep
@ Lucchese
1–2
L
19 Aug
vs Figline
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ternana and Montevarchi Calcio.
What is the prediction for Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio?
Our pick is Ternana to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.72.
Who will win Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio?
On our numbers Ternana have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Montevarchi Calcio 11%.
How many goals will there be in Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio?
Our predicted score is Ternana 1–0 Montevarchi Calcio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio?
Ternana vs Montevarchi Calcio (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Libero Liberati.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
