Serie D Girone E · ItalyRobur Siena vs Seravezza prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 1.96 · bookmaker 2.08 · Won ✓
Value bet: Seravezza to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Robur Siena 1.5 – 1.4 Seravezza expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Robur Siena and Seravezza on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 36% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Robur Siena have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3 per game. Seravezza have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.2 scored and 0.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.5 for Robur Siena, 1.4 for Seravezza). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–2 (8%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 51% chance – the bookmaker price of 2.08 is better than our fair price of 1.96, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Seravezza to win at 3.00 is our value angle (36% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Robur Siena to win ✓ | 40% | 2.48 | 2.15 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.96 | 2.08 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 40% | 2.49 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Robur Siena / FT Robur Siena ✓ | 24% | 4.23 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✓ | 9% | 11.52 | – |
Form
Robur Siena – last 6
| 27 Sep | @ Lucchese | 2–3 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Montevarchi Calcio | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | @ Tau Altopascio | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Mezzolara | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Scandicci | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | vs San Donato Tavarnelle | 1–1 | D |
Seravezza – last 6
| 27 Sep | vs Terranuova Traiana | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Progresso | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Montevarchi Calcio | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Lucchese | 5–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ San Donato Tavarnelle | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | vs Pistoiese | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Robur Siena and Seravezza.
Serie D Girone E table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Prato | 11 | +13 | 25 |
| 2 |  Robur Siena | 11 | +14 | 22 |
| 3 |  Ternana | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Gavorrano | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 |  Flaminia | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 6 |  Lucchese | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Terranuova Traiana | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Tau Altopascio | 11 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Montevarchi Calcio | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 10 |  Seravezza | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 11 |  Scandicci | 11 | +3 | 15 |
| 12 |  San Donato Tavarnelle | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Sasso Marconi Zola | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 |  Mezzolara | 11 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 |  Rondinella | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 16 |  Grassina | 11 | -11 | 7 |
| 17 |  Progresso | 11 | -16 | 6 |
| 18 |  Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 11 | -16 | 3 |
More Serie D Girone E predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Robur Siena vs Seravezza?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.08.
Who will win Robur Siena vs Seravezza?
On our numbers Robur Siena have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Seravezza 36%.
How many goals will there be in Robur Siena vs Seravezza?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Robur Siena vs Seravezza?
Robur Siena vs Seravezza (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.