Value bet: Gavorrano to win @ 2.77 – our chance 41% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGavorrano to win ✗41% · @2.77
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · fair 1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.94
Flaminia vs Gavorrano preview and prediction
The match
Gavorrano travel to face Flaminia in the Serie D Girone E on Sunday 4 October (14:00 WAT). Flaminia are 5th with 19 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Gavorrano sit 4th on 21 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Flaminia's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat San Donato Tavarnelle 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Gavorrano's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Sasso Marconi Zola 2–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gavorrano arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Flaminia and 1.3 for Gavorrano. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Gavorrano to win at 2.77 – 41% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Flaminia 1–1 Gavorrano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Flaminia37%fair 2.72 · @2.44
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.56
Gavorrano41%fair 2.47 · @2.77
2.58Expected goals
1.25Flaminia xG
1.33Gavorrano xG
52%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Flaminia 1.3 – 1.3 Gavorrano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gavorrano to win✗
41%
2.47
2.77 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.88
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gavorrano / FT Gavorrano✗
22%
4.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.94
–
Form
Flaminia – last 6
WLDWWL
27 Sep
vs San Donato Tavarnelle
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ Terranuova Traiana
1–5
L
16 Sep
vs Sasso Marconi Zola
2–2
D
13 Sep
@ Grassina
1–0
W
6 Sep
vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
2–0
W
26 Jul
@ Lazio
0–6
L
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Gavorrano – last 6
WWWDWW
27 Sep
vs Sasso Marconi Zola
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ San Donato Tavarnelle
2–0
W
16 Sep
vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Ternana
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Grassina
2–0
W
10 May
vs Camaiore
3–2
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Flaminia and Gavorrano.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Flaminia vs Gavorrano?
On our numbers Flaminia have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gavorrano 41%.
How many goals will there be in Flaminia vs Gavorrano?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Flaminia vs Gavorrano?
Our predicted score is Flaminia 1–1 Gavorrano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Flaminia vs Gavorrano?
Flaminia vs Gavorrano (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
