Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Pavia to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPavia to win ✗59% · @1.91
Double chancePavia or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · fair 1.72
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.65
Pavia vs Arconatese preview and prediction
The match
Arconatese travel to face Pavia in the Serie D Girone D on Sunday 27 September (14:00 WAT). Pavia are 12th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Arconatese sit 17th on 6 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Pavia's last 5: DDDLW Most recently they drew with Sant'Angelo 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Arconatese's last 4: LLDL Most recently they lost to Pro Patria 0–3 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Pavia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Pavia and 0.6 for Arconatese. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Pavia 59%, draw 24%, Arconatese 17%.
Safer route: Pavia or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Pavia to win at 1.91 – 59% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Pavia or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Pavia 1–0 Arconatese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pavia59%fair 1.70 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.10
Arconatese17%fair 5.79 · @3.70
2.13Expected goals
1.48Pavia xG
0.64Arconatese xG
42%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–013%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Pavia 1.5 – 0.6 Arconatese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pavia to win✗
59%
1.70
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Pavia or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pavia / FT Pavia✗
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.65
–
Form
Pavia – last 6
DDDLWL
20 Sep
@ Sant'Angelo
0–0
D
16 Sep
vs Solbiatese
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Crema
0–0
D
19 Jul
@ Pisa
1–6
L
10 May
@ Breno
1–0
W
3 May
@ Chievo
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Arconatese – last 4
LLDL
20 Sep
vs Pro Patria
0–3
L
16 Sep
@ Pistoiese
0–5
L
13 Sep
vs Correggese
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ USD Casatese
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pavia and Arconatese.
Our pick is Pavia or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Pavia vs Arconatese?
On our numbers Pavia have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Arconatese 17%.
How many goals will there be in Pavia vs Arconatese?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pavia vs Arconatese?
Our predicted score is Pavia 1–0 Arconatese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Pavia vs Arconatese?
Pavia vs Arconatese (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
