Serie D Girone D · ItalyUSD Casatese vs Varesina prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.26 · Won ✓
Value bet: Varesina to win @ 3.44 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: USD Casatese 1.5 – 1.2 Varesina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
USD Casatese hold the edge on home soil with a 46% chance of winning, against 32% for Varesina.
USD Casatese have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 per game. Varesina have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. USD Casatese come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.5 for USD Casatese, 1.2 for Varesina). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 58%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%).
In their last 1 meeting, USD Casatese have won 0, Varesina have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.26 is close to our fair price of 1.36. For a bigger price, Varesina to win at 3.44 is our value angle (32% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | USD Casatese to win ✓ | 46% | 2.18 | 2.01 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.36 | 1.26 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 71% | 1.41 | 1.31 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.35 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT USD Casatese / FT USD Casatese ✓ | 26% | 3.86 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 10% | 9.64 | – |
Form
USD Casatese – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Correggese | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Sant'Angelo | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Solbiatese | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Arconatese | 2–1 | W |
| 10 May | vs Leon | 4–0 | W |
| 3 May | vs Leon Monza e Brianza | 1–0 | W |
Varesina – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Pistoiese | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Sep | @ Correggese | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Sant'Angelo | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Cittadella Vis Modena | 3–2 | W |
| 10 May | @ Castellanzese | 2–1 | W |
| 3 May | @ Caldiero Terme | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 22 Mar 2026 | USD Casatese v Varesina | 0–1 |
Serie D Girone D table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Pistoiese | 11 | +19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Lentigione | 11 | +8 | 24 |
| 3 |  Pro Patria | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 4 |  Castellanzese | 11 | +8 | 19 |
| 5 |  USD Casatese | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 6 |  Pro Sesto | 11 | +12 | 18 |
| 7 |  Cittadella Vis Modena | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 8 |  Solbiatese | 11 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |  Sant'Angelo | 11 | 0 | 15 |
| 10 |  Crema | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 |  Città di Varese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Pavia | 11 | +3 | 14 |
| 13 |  Correggese | 11 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 |  Varesina | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Coriano | 11 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 |  Pontedera | 11 | -16 | 7 |
| 17 |  Arconatese | 11 | -15 | 6 |
| 18 |  Oltrepò | 11 | -19 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone D predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for USD Casatese vs Varesina?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win USD Casatese vs Varesina?
On our numbers USD Casatese have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Varesina 32%.
How many goals will there be in USD Casatese vs Varesina?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
When is USD Casatese vs Varesina?
USD Casatese vs Varesina (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.