Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.21 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.21Odds
2
Value bet: Ligorna to win @ 1.78 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLigorna to win ✓63% · @1.78
Double chanceLigorna or draw ✓86% · @1.21
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.92
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗11% · fair 9.06
Valenzana vs Ligorna preview and prediction
The match
Valenzana host Ligorna in the Serie D Girone A on Sunday 25 October, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT). Valenzana are 17th with 6 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Ligorna sit 5th on 18 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Valenzana's last 5: LDWWL Most recently they lost to Biellese 1–4 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Ligorna's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Bra 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Ligorna arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 29 March 2026, finished Valenzana 1–0 Ligorna.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.9 for Valenzana and 2.1 for Ligorna. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 53% and both teams to score at 48%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Ligorna to win at 1.78 – 63% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ligorna or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.21, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Valenzana 0–2 Ligorna. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Valenzana14%fair 7.07 · @4.00
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.35
Ligorna63%fair 1.58 · @1.78
2.96Expected goals
0.90Valenzana xG
2.07Ligorna xG
48%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–111%
1–210%
1–110%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Valenzana 0.9 – 2.1 Ligorna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Ligorna or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.21.
Who will win Valenzana vs Ligorna?
On our numbers Valenzana have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ligorna 63%.
How many goals will there be in Valenzana vs Ligorna?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valenzana vs Ligorna?
Our predicted score is Valenzana 0–2 Ligorna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Valenzana vs Ligorna?
Valenzana vs Ligorna (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
