Serie D Girone A · Italy · Stadio Giuseppe MoccagattaAlessandria vs Asti prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Value bet: Asti to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Alessandria 1.6 – 1.3 Asti expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Alessandria hold the edge on home soil with a 46% chance of winning, against 33% for Asti.
Alessandria have taken 6 points from their last 3 matches (2W 0D 1L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.0 per game. Asti have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.6 for Alessandria, 1.3 for Asti). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.33. For a bigger price, Asti to win at 3.40 is our value angle (33% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Alessandria to win ✓ | 46% | 2.20 | 2.05 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.88 | 1.84 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 52% | 1.94 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.44 | 1.29 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 41% | 2.47 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Alessandria / FT Alessandria ✓ | 26% | 3.79 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.95 | – |
Form
Alessandria – last 3
| 16 Sep | @ Millesimo | 1–4 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Sestri Levante | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Valenzana | 2–1 | W |
Asti – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Valenzana | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Sep | @ Imperia | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Gozzano | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Sestri Levante | 0–2 | L |
| 10 May | @ Cairese | 1–0 | W |
| 3 May | @ Club Milano | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alessandria and Asti.
Serie D Girone A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alessandria | 11 | +12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Chisola | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Biellese | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 4 |  Derthona | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 5 |  Ligorna | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 6 |  Millesimo | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 |  Sanremese | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Saluzzo | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Imperia | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Asti | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Gozzano | 11 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Sestri Levante | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Borgosesia | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Lascaris | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Fezzanese | 11 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 |  Bra | 11 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |  Valenzana | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Celle Varazze | 11 | -15 | 4 |
More Serie D Girone A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Alessandria vs Asti?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Alessandria vs Asti?
On our numbers Alessandria have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Asti 33%.
How many goals will there be in Alessandria vs Asti?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Alessandria vs Asti?
Alessandria vs Asti (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.