Brighton vs Tromso prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.83 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Brighton 2.1 – 0.7 Tromso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Brighton are clear favourites at home with a 74% chance of winning, against 12% for Tromso.
Brighton have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 per game. Tromso have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 3.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (2.1 for Brighton, 0.7 for Tromso). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 49%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–0 (14%), 1–0 (13%), 3–0 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Brighton have won 0, Tromso have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 61% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.83 is better than our fair price of 1.65, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Brighton to win ✓ | 74% | 1.36 | 1.13 |
| Double chance | Brighton or draw ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | 1.03 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | 1.11 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.38 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.65 | 1.83 ▲ |
| Half-time result | Brighton ahead at half-time ✓ | 51% | 1.97 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Brighton / FT Brighton ✓ | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.11 | – |
Form
Brighton – last 6
| 23 Aug | vs Aston Villa | 4–0 | W |
| 20 Aug | @ Tromso | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Aug | vs Bologna | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs AS Roma | 3–0 | W |
| 1 Aug | vs Strasbourg | 4–3 | W |
| 24 May | vs Manchester United | 0–3 | L |
Tromso – last 6
| 22 Aug | @ Ulfstind | 5–0 | W |
| 20 Aug | vs Brighton | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Aug | @ Molde | 2–3 | L |
| 13 Aug | vs CFR 1907 Cluj | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Aug | @ CFR 1907 Cluj | 5–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | @ Aalesund | 6–2 | W |
Head to head
| 20 Aug 2026 | Tromso v Brighton | 0–0 |
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 |  Panathinaikos | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 |  Twente | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 |  Monaco | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Brighton | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |  Brann | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |  FC Copenhagen | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 |  Universitatea Craiova | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 |  Mjallby AIF | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 |  St. Truiden | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Ajax | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Trabzonspor | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  SC Freiburg | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atalanta | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 |  SC Braga | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 18 |  Gent | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 |  Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 |  FC Thun | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 |  Borac Banja Luka | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 |  FK Jablonec | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 |  Aarhus | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 25 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 26 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 |  Kairat Almaty | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 |  CSKA Sofia | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 |  Pafos | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 31 |  Getafe | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 33 |  KuPS | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Midtjylland | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa Conference League predictions
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Inter Turku1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Brighton vs Tromso?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Brighton vs Tromso?
On our numbers Brighton have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Tromso 12%.
How many goals will there be in Brighton vs Tromso?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Brighton vs Tromso?
Brighton vs Tromso (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 27 August 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at American Express Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.