Value bet: Casarano to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBari to win ✓40% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓10% · fair 10.31
Bari vs Casarano preview and prediction
The match
Bari host Casarano in the Coppa Italia Serie C on Sunday 16 August, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stadio San Nicola.
Form guide
Bari's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Sudtirol 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Casarano's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Union Brescia 0–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Bari and 1.3 for Casarano. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bari 40%, draw 23%, Casarano 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Casarano to win at 3.10 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Bari 1–1 Casarano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bari40%fair 2.53 · @2.10
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.30
Casarano37%fair 2.67 · @3.10
2.62Expected goals
1.33Bari xG
1.29Casarano xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Bari 1.3 – 1.3 Casarano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bari to win✓
40%
2.53
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bari / FT Bari✓
22%
4.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
10%
10.31
–
Form
Bari – last 6
DWWWLL
22 May
@ Sudtirol
0–0
D
8 May
@ Catanzaro
3–2
W
1 May
vs Virtus Entella
2–0
W
6 Apr
vs Modena
3–1
W
22 Mar
vs Carrarese
0–3
L
18 Mar
@ Frosinone
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Casarano – last 6
DLWWWW
20 May
@ Union Brescia
0–0
D
17 May
vs Union Brescia
0–3
L
13 May
@ Renate
3–0
W
6 May
@ Cosenza
5–1
W
6 Apr
vs Potenza
2–1
W
29 Mar
vs Giugliano
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bari and Casarano.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Bari vs Casarano?
On our numbers Bari have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Casarano 37%.
How many goals will there be in Bari vs Casarano?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bari vs Casarano?
Our predicted score is Bari 1–1 Casarano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Bari vs Casarano?
Bari vs Casarano (Coppa Italia Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio San Nicola.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Dolomiti Bellunesi1
Treviso0
Juventus U231
Forli1
Alcione0
Novara1
Crotone0
Cosenza2
Foggia1
Team Altamura2
Giugliano0
Sorrento0
Latina1
Ostia Mare1
Lecco0
Desenzano Calvina0