Value bet: Novara to win @ 3.20 – our chance 39% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNovara to win ✓39% · @3.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓11% · fair 8.78
Alcione vs Novara preview and prediction
The match
The Coppa Italia Serie C sees Alcione take on Novara on Sunday 16 August, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stadio Ernesto Breda.
Form guide
Alcione's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Mantova 2–6 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Novara's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Virtus Entella 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Novara arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 22 March 2026, finished Novara 3–0 Alcione.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Alcione and 1.2 for Novara. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Alcione 37%, draw 25%, Novara 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Novara to win at 3.20 – 39% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Alcione 1–1 Novara. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alcione37%fair 2.73 · @2.15
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.00
Novara39%fair 2.58 · @3.20
2.36Expected goals
1.16Alcione xG
1.20Novara xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Alcione 1.2 – 1.2 Novara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alcione vs Novara?
On our numbers Alcione have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Novara 39%.
How many goals will there be in Alcione vs Novara?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alcione vs Novara?
Our predicted score is Alcione 1–1 Novara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Alcione vs Novara?
Alcione vs Novara (Coppa Italia Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ernesto Breda.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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