Perugia host Spezia in the Serie C Girone B on Wednesday 16 September, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stadio Renato Curi. Perugia are 12th with 17 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Spezia sit 1st on 35 points (top of the table). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Perugia's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Ravenna 0–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Spezia's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Livorno 2–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Spezia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Perugia and 1.3 for Spezia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Perugia 34%, draw 25%, Spezia 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Perugia 1–1 Spezia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Perugia34%fair 2.96 · @2.70
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @2.90
Spezia41%fair 2.45 · @2.40
2.38Expected goals
1.12Perugia xG
1.26Spezia xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Perugia 1.1 – 1.3 Spezia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spezia to win✓
41%
2.45
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spezia / FT Spezia✓
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.55
–
Form
Perugia – last 6
LWDWLD
13 Sep
@ Ravenna
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Pineto
2–1
W
30 Aug
@ Vis Pesaro
2–2
D
23 Aug
vs Ostia Mare
1–0
W
15 Aug
vs Vis Pesaro
1–2
L
26 Apr
@ Forli
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Spezia – last 6
WWWWDW
12 Sep
vs Livorno
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Sambenedettese
2–1
W
2 Sep
vs Vado
3–0
W
29 Aug
vs Campobasso FC
1–0
W
23 Aug
@ Grosseto
1–1
D
16 Aug
vs Torres
4–1
W
2.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Perugia and Spezia.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Perugia vs Spezia?
On our numbers Perugia have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Spezia 41%.
How many goals will there be in Perugia vs Spezia?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Perugia vs Spezia?
Our predicted score is Perugia 1–1 Spezia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Perugia vs Spezia?
Perugia vs Spezia (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Renato Curi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
