Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Livorno to win @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLivorno to win ✓61% · @1.80
Double chanceLivorno or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗24% · fair 4.21
Livorno vs Vado preview and prediction
The match
The Serie C Girone B sees Livorno take on Vado on Wednesday 16 September, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stadio Armando Picchi. Livorno are 8th with 20 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Vado sit 13th on 16 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Livorno's last 5: LWDDW Most recently they lost to Spezia 0–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vado's last 5: LLLDW Most recently they lost to Campobasso FC 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Livorno arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 1.2 for Livorno and 0.4 for Vado. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 78% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Livorno 61%, draw 21%, Vado 18%.
Safer route: Livorno or draw (82%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Livorno to win at 1.80 – 61% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Livorno or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Livorno 1–0 Vado. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Livorno61%fair 1.63 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.10
Vado18%fair 5.64 · @4.00
1.63Expected goals
1.21Livorno xG
0.42Vado xG
47%Both score
22%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–024%
0–020%
2–014%
1–110%
0–18%
2–16%
From our goals model: Livorno 1.2 – 0.4 Vado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Livorno to win✓
61%
1.63
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Livorno or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
92%
1.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
54%
1.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Livorno / FT Livorno✗
33%
3.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
24%
4.21
–
Form
Livorno – last 6
LWDDWW
12 Sep
@ Spezia
0–2
L
6 Sep
vs Atalanta II
1–0
W
3 Sep
@ Novara
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Pineto
0–0
D
24 Aug
vs Torres
2–1
W
15 Aug
vs Reggiana
3–1
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Vado – last 6
LLLDWD
12 Sep
vs Campobasso FC
0–1
L
6 Sep
@ Reggiana
1–3
L
2 Sep
@ Spezia
0–3
L
28 Aug
@ Pianese
0–0
D
21 Aug
vs Atalanta II
2–0
W
14 Aug
vs Inter U23
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Livorno and Vado.
Our pick is Livorno or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Livorno vs Vado?
On our numbers Livorno have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Vado 18%.
How many goals will there be in Livorno vs Vado?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 22% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Livorno vs Vado?
Our predicted score is Livorno 1–0 Vado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Livorno vs Vado?
Livorno vs Vado (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Armando Picchi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
