Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.80 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.80Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCeloricense to win ✗62% · @1.80
Double chanceCeloricense or draw ✓84% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.66
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.34
Celoricense vs Vila Meã preview and prediction
The match
The Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A sees Celoricense take on Vila Meã on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT). Celoricense are 7th with 12 points from 8 games (in the top half), while Vila Meã sit 11th on 9 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Celoricense's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Bragança 1–6 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Vila Meã's last 5: WLDDW Most recently they beat Vinhais 4–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Celoricense and 0.6 for Vila Meã. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Celoricense 62%, draw 22%, Vila Meã 16%.
Safer route: Celoricense or draw (84%) at 1.17.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Celoricense to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.62, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Celoricense 1–0 Vila Meã. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Celoricense62%fair 1.62 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.20
Vila Meã16%fair 6.27 · @4.00
2.08Expected goals
1.50Celoricense xG
0.58Vila Meã xG
40%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
0–17%
From our goals model: Celoricense 1.5 – 0.6 Vila Meã expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Celoricense to win✗
62%
1.62
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Celoricense or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.60
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Celoricense / FT Celoricense✗
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.34
–
Form
Celoricense – last 6
LLWWWD
20 Sep
@ Bragança
1–6
L
13 Sep
@ Chaves II
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Tirsense
2–1
W
30 Aug
vs Pevidem
1–0
W
23 Aug
@ Maria da Fonte
1–0
W
16 Aug
vs Montalegre
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Vila Meã – last 6
WLDDWW
13 Sep
vs Vinhais
4–0
W
6 Sep
@ Rebordosa
0–1
L
30 Aug
@ Maia Lidador
0–0
D
23 Aug
vs Os Limianos
1–1
D
16 Aug
@ Ponte da Barca
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Rebordosa
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Celoricense and Vila Meã.
What is the prediction for Celoricense vs Vila Meã?
Our pick is Celoricense to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Celoricense vs Vila Meã?
On our numbers Celoricense have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Vila Meã 16%.
How many goals will there be in Celoricense vs Vila Meã?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Celoricense vs Vila Meã?
Our predicted score is Celoricense 1–0 Vila Meã, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Celoricense vs Vila Meã?
Celoricense vs Vila Meã (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
