Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Athletic Club to win @ 2.28 – our chance 47% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAthletic Club to win ✗47% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.45
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.42
Marseille vs Athletic Club preview and prediction
The match
Athletic Club travel to face Marseille in the Friendlies Clubs on Sunday 9 August (16:30 WAT).
Form guide
Marseille's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Nimes 2–1 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Athletic Club's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Burgos 3–0 away. On the road they have won 5 and lost 0 of their last 5. They are scoring freely – 4.0 goals a game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Athletic Club arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.6 for Marseille and 1.9 for Athletic Club. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Marseille 33%, draw 20%, Athletic Club 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.45.
Value angle: Athletic Club to win at 2.28 – 47% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 66% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Marseille 1–1 Athletic Club. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Marseille33%fair 3.01 · @2.78
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @3.70
Athletic Club47%fair 2.15 · @2.28
3.51Expected goals
1.59Marseille xG
1.92Athletic Club xG
66%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
0–16%
1–36%
From our goals model: Marseille 1.6 – 1.9 Athletic Club expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Athletic Club to win✗
47%
2.15
2.28 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
66%
1.52
1.45
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.55
Half-time result
Athletic Club ahead at half-time✗
36%
2.76
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Athletic Club / FT Athletic Club✗
28%
3.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.42
–
Form
Marseille – last 6
WWWLLW
30 Jul
vs Nimes
2–1
W
17 May
vs Rennes
3–1
W
10 Apr
vs Metz
3–1
W
5 Apr
@ Monaco
1–2
L
22 Mar
vs Lille
1–2
L
13 Mar
vs Auxerre
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Athletic Club – last 6
WWDWWW
1 Aug
@ Burgos
3–0
W
29 Jul
@ Racing Santander
3–0
W
25 Jul
vs Eibar
2–2
D
22 Jul
@ Sestao River
2–0
W
18 Jul
@ Leioa
11–0
W
15 Jul
@ Derio
3–0
W
4.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marseille and Athletic Club.
What is the prediction for Marseille vs Athletic Club?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Marseille vs Athletic Club?
On our numbers Marseille have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Athletic Club 47%.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Athletic Club?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Athletic Club?
Our predicted score is Marseille 1–1 Athletic Club, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Marseille vs Athletic Club?
Marseille vs Athletic Club (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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