Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid prediction & analysis
82%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Atletico Madrid to win @ 3.30 – our chance 36% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultManchester City to win ✓44% · @2.02
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.55
Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Madrid travel to Seoul World Cup Stadium in the Friendlies Clubs on Sunday 9 August (12:00 WAT) to face Manchester City.
Form guide
Manchester City's last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat K-League Stars 3–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Atletico Madrid's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Manchester United 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 1.8 for Manchester City and 1.6 for Atletico Madrid. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Manchester City 44%, draw 19%, Atletico Madrid 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Atletico Madrid to win at 3.30 – 36% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 82% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Manchester City 1–1 Atletico Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Manchester City44%fair 2.26 · @2.02
Draw19%fair 5.14 · @3.75
Atletico Madrid36%fair 2.76 · @3.30
3.39Expected goals
1.79Manchester City xG
1.60Atletico Madrid xG
65%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
2–27%
1–06%
2–05%
From our goals model: Manchester City 1.8 – 1.6 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Manchester City to win✓
44%
2.26
2.02
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.54
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.50
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.71
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Manchester City / FT Manchester City✗
26%
3.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.55
–
Form
Manchester City – last 6
WDLDWD
5 Aug
@ K-League Stars
3–1
W
1 Aug
vs Inter
1–1
D
24 May
vs Aston Villa
1–2
L
19 May
@ Bournemouth
1–1
D
13 May
vs Crystal Palace
3–0
W
4 May
@ Everton
3–3
D
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
LWLWWL
1 Aug
@ Manchester United
1–2
L
29 Jul
vs Getafe
4–1
W
24 May
@ Villarreal
1–5
L
17 May
vs Girona
1–0
W
12 May
@ Osasuna
2–1
W
5 May
@ Arsenal
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Manchester City and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Manchester City have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Atletico Madrid 36%.
How many goals will there be in Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Manchester City 1–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid?
Manchester City vs Atletico Madrid (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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