Value bet: Benevento to win @ 2.26 – our chance 49% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBenevento to win ✗49% · @2.26
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.95
Benevento vs Modena preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Benevento take on Modena on Saturday 22 August, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Benevento are 6th with 16 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Modena sit 2nd on 23 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Benevento's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Fiorentina 1–4 away. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Modena's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Venezia 2–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Benevento arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.5 for Benevento and 1.1 for Modena. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Benevento 49%, draw 22%, Modena 29%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Benevento to win at 2.26 – 49% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Benevento 1–1 Modena. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Benevento49%fair 2.04 · @2.26
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.35
Modena29%fair 3.43 · @3.00
2.61Expected goals
1.52Benevento xG
1.09Modena xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Benevento 1.5 – 1.1 Modena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benevento to win✗
49%
2.04
2.26 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benevento / FT Benevento✗
28%
3.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.95
–
Form
Benevento – last 6
LWDWWL
14 Aug
@ Fiorentina
1–4
L
9 Aug
vs Ravenna
5–3
W
1 Aug
@ Frosinone
2–2
D
31 Jul
@ Vis Pesaro
2–1
W
26 Jul
@ Ostia Mare
2–0
W
13 Apr
vs Cavese
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Modena – last 6
LDWLWL
15 Aug
@ Venezia
2–3
L
8 Aug
vs Vis Pesaro
0–0
D
1 Aug
@ Trento
1–0
W
28 Jul
@ Cagliari
0–1
L
25 Jul
vs Virtus Bolzano
5–0
W
12 May
vs Juve Stabia
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benevento and Modena.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Benevento vs Modena?
On our numbers Benevento have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Modena 29%.
How many goals will there be in Benevento vs Modena?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benevento vs Modena?
Our predicted score is Benevento 1–1 Modena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Benevento vs Modena?
Benevento vs Modena (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
