Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultChester to win ✗67% · @1.62
Double chanceChester or draw ✗90% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.62
Chester vs Merthyr Town preview and prediction
The match
Merthyr Town travel to Deva Stadium in the National League North on Tuesday 8 September (19:45 WAT) to face Chester. Chester are 8th with 26 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Merthyr Town sit 16th on 19 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Chester's last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with Hebburn Town 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Merthyr Town's last 5: WLDDD Most recently they beat Macclesfield 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Chester arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 10 March 2026, finished Merthyr Town 1–2 Chester.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Chester and 0.6 for Merthyr Town. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Chester 67%, draw 22%, Merthyr Town 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Chester to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Chester 1–0 Merthyr Town. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chester67%fair 1.49 · @1.62
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.65
Merthyr Town10%fair 9.71 · @4.80
2.54Expected goals
1.91Chester xG
0.62Merthyr Town xG
54%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–19%
3–09%
2–19%
0–08%
From our goals model: Chester 1.9 – 0.6 Merthyr Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Chester vs Merthyr Town?
Our pick is Chester to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Chester vs Merthyr Town?
On our numbers Chester have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Merthyr Town 10%.
How many goals will there be in Chester vs Merthyr Town?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chester vs Merthyr Town?
Our predicted score is Chester 1–0 Merthyr Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Chester vs Merthyr Town?
Chester vs Merthyr Town (National League North) kicks off on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Deva Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
