Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford United prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.42 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.42Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMerthyr Town to win ✗41% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.42
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.54
Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford United preview and prediction
The match
The National League North sees Merthyr Town take on AFC Telford United on Tuesday 18 August, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT). Merthyr Town are 17th with 19 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while AFC Telford United sit 11th on 22 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Merthyr Town's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Spennymoor Town 1–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
AFC Telford United's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Worksop Town 1–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Merthyr Town arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.5 for Merthyr Town and 1.4 for AFC Telford United. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Merthyr Town 41%, draw 22%, AFC Telford United 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.42.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 66% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: Merthyr Town 1–1 AFC Telford United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Merthyr Town41%fair 2.43 · @2.45
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.60
AFC Telford United37%fair 2.72 · @2.45
2.95Expected goals
1.53Merthyr Town xG
1.43AFC Telford United xG
66%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Merthyr Town 1.5 – 1.4 AFC Telford United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Merthyr Town to win✗
41%
2.43
2.45
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
66%
1.51
1.42
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.60
1.57
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Merthyr Town / FT Merthyr Town✗
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.54
–
Form
Merthyr Town – last 6
LWLWWL
15 Aug
@ Spennymoor Town
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Hednesford Town
2–0
W
1 Aug
@ Worcester City
0–1
L
28 Jul
vs Swansea
3–0
W
21 Jul
vs Briton Ferry
3–0
W
18 Jul
vs Forest Green
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
AFC Telford United – last 6
LLLWLL
15 Aug
@ Worksop Town
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Brackley Town
1–2
L
1 Aug
vs Tamworth
1–3
L
25 Jul
vs Walsall
1–0
W
21 Jul
vs Crewe
0–3
L
6 Apr
vs Kidderminster Harriers
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Merthyr Town and AFC Telford United.
What is the prediction for Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford United?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford United?
On our numbers Merthyr Town have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 22% and AFC Telford United 37%.
How many goals will there be in Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford United?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford United?
Our predicted score is Merthyr Town 1–1 AFC Telford United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford United?
Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford United (National League North) kicks off on Tuesday 18 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
