Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Hednesford Town or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.45Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.50 – our chance 55% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +93%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗55% · @3.50
Double chanceHednesford Town or draw ✗79% · @1.45
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗11% · fair 8.79
Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town preview and prediction
The match
Merthyr Town host Hednesford Town in the National League North on Saturday 8 August, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Penydarren Park. Merthyr Town are 17th with 19 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Hednesford Town sit 5th on 27 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Merthyr Town's last 5: LWWLD Most recently they lost to Worcester City 0–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Hednesford Town's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Boston United 2–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Hednesford Town arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.4 for Merthyr Town and 1.5 for Hednesford Town. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Merthyr Town 21%, draw 55%, Hednesford Town 24%.
Safer route: Hednesford Town or draw (79%) at 1.45.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Draw at 3.50 – 55% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Hednesford Town or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.45, above our fair price of 1.27, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Merthyr Town 1–1 Hednesford Town. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Merthyr Town21%fair 4.77 · @2.60
Draw55%fair 1.81 · @3.50
Hednesford Town24%fair 4.21 · @2.33
2.95Expected goals
1.44Merthyr Town xG
1.51Hednesford Town xG
64%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–08%
2–26%
From our goals model: Merthyr Town 1.4 – 1.5 Hednesford Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
55%
1.81
3.50 ▲
Double chance
Hednesford Town or draw✗
79%
1.27
1.45 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.50
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hednesford Town / FT Hednesford Town✗
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
11%
8.79
–
Form
Merthyr Town – last 6
LWWLDW
1 Aug
@ Worcester City
0–1
L
28 Jul
vs Swansea
3–0
W
21 Jul
vs Briton Ferry
3–0
W
18 Jul
vs Forest Green
1–2
L
14 Jul
vs Yeovil Town
2–2
D
10 Jul
vs Cambrian & Clydach
4–2
W
2.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Hednesford Town – last 6
WLWWWW
1 Aug
vs Boston United
2–0
W
18 Jul
vs Solihull Moors
1–2
L
28 Apr
vs Stockton Town
2–0
W
6 Apr
@ United of Manchester
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs Prescot Cables
3–0
W
21 Feb
vs Lancaster City
3–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Merthyr Town and Hednesford Town.
What is the prediction for Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town?
Our pick is Hednesford Town or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town?
On our numbers Merthyr Town have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 55% and Hednesford Town 24%.
How many goals will there be in Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town?
Our predicted score is Merthyr Town 1–1 Hednesford Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town?
Merthyr Town vs Hednesford Town (National League North) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Penydarren Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
