National League · England · VBS Community Stadium

Sutton Utd vs Solihull Moors prediction & analysis

79%

Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20

9/10Rating

1.20Odds

Value bet: Sutton Utd to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.

Quick tips for this match

ResultSutton Utd to win59% · @1.85

Double chanceEither team to win80% · @1.25

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.62

GoalsOver 1.5 goals79% · @1.20

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.06

Win chances

Sutton Utd59%fair 1.69 · @1.85

Draw20%fair 4.96 · @3.60

Solihull Moors21%fair 4.81 · @3.60

3.01Expected goals

1.96Sutton Utd xG

1.06Solihull Moors xG

58%Both score

57%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–110%

2–110%

1–010%

2–09%

3–16%

3–06%

From our goals model: Sutton Utd 2.0 – 1.1 Solihull Moors expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Sutton Utd hold the edge on home soil with a 59% chance of winning, against 21% for Solihull Moors.

Sutton Utd have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.7 per game. Solihull Moors have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.

We expect around 3.0 goals (2.0 for Sutton Utd, 1.1 for Solihull Moors). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%).

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 79% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.26. For a bigger price, Sutton Utd to win at 1.85 is our value angle (59% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Sutton Utd to win	59%	1.69	1.85 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win	80%	1.25	1.25
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	58%	1.72	1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.26	1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.77	1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	64%	1.55	1.44
Half-time result	Sutton Utd ahead at half-time	43%	2.33	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Sutton Utd / FT Sutton Utd	37%	2.72	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1	10%	10.06	–

Form

Sutton Utd – last 6

LDWWLW

7 Nov	@ Guiseley AFC	0–1	L
3 Nov	vs Southampton U21	0–0	D
31 Oct	@ Worthing	3–0	W
28 Oct	vs Aldershot Town	2–0	W
24 Oct	@ Harrogate Town	1–3	L
17 Oct	vs Truro City	1–0	W

1.2Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

17%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Solihull Moors – last 6

WWLLWL

31 Oct	vs Kidderminster Harriers	2–1	W
27 Oct	@ Wealdstone	3–2	W
24 Oct	vs Carlisle	1–2	L
17 Oct	@ Kidderminster Harriers	1–2	L
13 Oct	vs Everton U21	1–0	W
10 Oct	@ Worthing	0–5	L

1.3Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Sutton Utd and Solihull Moors.

National League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	16	14	2	0	+27	44
2	Harrogate Town	16	10	2	4	+11	32
3	Southend	16	8	5	3	+11	29
4	AFC Fylde	16	9	2	5	+6	29
5	Yeovil Town	16	8	4	4	+15	28
6	Worthing	16	8	4	4	+7	28
7	Altrincham	16	9	1	6	0	28
8	Carlisle	16	7	5	4	+9	26
9	Barrow	15	7	4	4	+7	25
10	FC Halifax Town	16	7	3	6	+8	24
11	Sutton Utd	16	7	3	6	-1	24
12	Woking	16	6	3	7	+1	21
13	Kidderminster Harriers	16	5	6	5	+1	21
14	Aldershot Town	16	6	3	7	0	21
15	AFC Hornchurch	16	7	0	9	-8	21
16	Forest Green	14	5	4	5	-1	19
17	Eastleigh	16	5	4	7	-6	19
18	Wealdstone	16	5	3	8	-6	18
19	Boston United	16	5	3	8	-8	18
20	Tamworth	15	5	2	8	-7	17
21	Hartlepool	16	5	0	11	-9	15
22	Solihull Moors	16	4	1	11	-21	13
23	Scunthorpe	15	3	1	11	-11	10
24	Gateshead	15	1	1	13	-25	4

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