National League · England · Hornchurch Stadium

AFC Hornchurch vs Tamworth prediction & analysis

80%

Footrivo pick

Over 1.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20

9/10Rating

1.20Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultTamworth to win40% · @2.55

Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.28

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score61% · @1.57

GoalsOver 1.5 goals80% · @1.20

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.74

Win chances

AFC Hornchurch38%fair 2.64 · @2.38

Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.60

Tamworth40%fair 2.50 · @2.55

3.10Expected goals

1.53AFC Hornchurch xG

1.57Tamworth xG

61%Both score

58%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–111%

1–29%

2–18%

0–17%

1–07%

2–26%

From our goals model: AFC Hornchurch 1.5 – 1.6 Tamworth expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Very little separates AFC Hornchurch and Tamworth on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 40% for the visitors and 22% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

AFC Hornchurch have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.3 per game. Tamworth have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.

We expect around 3.1 goals (1.5 for AFC Hornchurch, 1.6 for Tamworth). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%).

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 80% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.25.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Tamworth to win	40%	2.50	2.55
Double chance	Either team to win	78%	1.29	1.28
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	61%	1.63	1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	80%	1.25	1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals	58%	1.72	1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	64%	1.57	1.44
Half-time result	Level at half-time	39%	2.57	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Tamworth / FT Tamworth	23%	4.31	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2	9%	11.74	–

Form

AFC Hornchurch – last 6

DWLLLW

7 Nov	vs Blackpool	1–1	D
3 Nov	vs West Ham United U21	2–0	W
30 Oct	@ AFC Fylde	1–3	L
27 Oct	vs Yeovil Town	1–2	L
24 Oct	@ Hartlepool	1–2	L
17 Oct	@ Uxbridge	4–0	W

1.7Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Tamworth – last 6

LLWLLW

3 Nov	vs Everton U21	2–3	L
31 Oct	vs Woking	0–1	L
27 Oct	vs Scunthorpe	4–1	W
17 Oct	@ Carlisle	1–2	L
10 Oct	vs Barrow	1–2	L
6 Oct	vs Leeds United U21	1–0	W

1.5Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between AFC Hornchurch and Tamworth.

National League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	16	14	2	0	+27	44
2	Harrogate Town	16	10	2	4	+11	32
3	Southend	16	8	5	3	+11	29
4	AFC Fylde	16	9	2	5	+6	29
5	Yeovil Town	16	8	4	4	+15	28
6	Worthing	16	8	4	4	+7	28
7	Altrincham	16	9	1	6	0	28
8	Carlisle	16	7	5	4	+9	26
9	Barrow	15	7	4	4	+7	25
10	FC Halifax Town	16	7	3	6	+8	24
11	Sutton Utd	16	7	3	6	-1	24
12	Woking	16	6	3	7	+1	21
13	Kidderminster Harriers	16	5	6	5	+1	21
14	Aldershot Town	16	6	3	7	0	21
15	AFC Hornchurch	16	7	0	9	-8	21
16	Forest Green	14	5	4	5	-1	19
17	Eastleigh	16	5	4	7	-6	19
18	Wealdstone	16	5	3	8	-6	18
19	Boston United	16	5	3	8	-8	18
20	Tamworth	15	5	2	8	-7	17
21	Hartlepool	16	5	0	11	-9	15
22	Solihull Moors	16	4	1	11	-21	13
23	Scunthorpe	15	3	1	11	-11	10
24	Gateshead	15	1	1	13	-25	4

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