National League · England · Victoria ParkHartlepool vs Wealdstone prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20
Value bet: Hartlepool to win @ 1.91 – our chance 63% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Hartlepool 2.0 – 1.0 Wealdstone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Hartlepool are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 20% for Wealdstone.
Hartlepool have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.2 per game. Wealdstone have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. Wealdstone come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.0 goals (2.0 for Hartlepool, 1.0 for Wealdstone). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10%), 1–0 (10%), 2–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Hartlepool have won 0, Wealdstone have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 7.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 79% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.26. For a bigger price, Hartlepool to win at 1.91 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Hartlepool to win | 63% | 1.58 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 84% | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 61% | 1.64 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.26 | 1.20 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.76 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.54 | 1.44 |
| Half-time result | Hartlepool ahead at half-time | 45% | 2.24 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Hartlepool / FT Hartlepool | 39% | 2.57 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 | 10% | 9.85 | – |
Form
Hartlepool – last 6
| 3 Nov | vs Leeds United U21 | 3–1 | W |
| 31 Oct | @ Boreham Wood | 3–4 | L |
| 27 Oct | @ AFC Fylde | 1–3 | L |
| 24 Oct | vs AFC Hornchurch | 2–1 | W |
| 17 Oct | vs Marine | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Oct | vs Newcastle United U21 | 1–2 | L |
Wealdstone – last 6
| 7 Nov | @ Dover | 0–2 | L |
| 3 Nov | vs Derby County U21 | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Oct | vs Southend | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Oct | vs Solihull Moors | 2–3 | L |
| 24 Oct | @ Aldershot Town | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Oct | vs Nottingham Forest U21 | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 31 Mar 2026 | Wealdstone v Hartlepool | 7–0 |
National League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boreham Wood | 16 | +27 | 44 |
| 2 |  Harrogate Town | 16 | +11 | 32 |
| 3 |  Southend | 16 | +11 | 29 |
| 4 |  AFC Fylde | 16 | +6 | 29 |
| 5 |  Yeovil Town | 16 | +15 | 28 |
| 6 |  Worthing | 16 | +7 | 28 |
| 7 |  Altrincham | 16 | 0 | 28 |
| 8 |  Carlisle | 16 | +9 | 26 |
| 9 |  Barrow | 15 | +7 | 25 |
| 10 |  FC Halifax Town | 16 | +8 | 24 |
| 11 |  Sutton Utd | 16 | -1 | 24 |
| 12 |  Woking | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 13 |  Kidderminster Harriers | 16 | +1 | 21 |
| 14 |  Aldershot Town | 16 | 0 | 21 |
| 15 |  AFC Hornchurch | 16 | -8 | 21 |
| 16 |  Forest Green | 14 | -1 | 19 |
| 17 |  Eastleigh | 16 | -6 | 19 |
| 18 |  Wealdstone | 16 | -6 | 18 |
| 19 |  Boston United | 16 | -8 | 18 |
| 20 |  Tamworth | 15 | -7 | 17 |
| 21 |  Hartlepool | 16 | -9 | 15 |
| 22 |  Solihull Moors | 16 | -21 | 13 |
| 23 |  Scunthorpe | 15 | -11 | 10 |
| 24 |  Gateshead | 15 | -25 | 4 |
More National League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Hartlepool vs Wealdstone?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Hartlepool vs Wealdstone?
On our numbers Hartlepool have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Wealdstone 20%.
How many goals will there be in Hartlepool vs Wealdstone?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
When is Hartlepool vs Wealdstone?
Hartlepool vs Wealdstone (National League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Victoria Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.