National League · England · Brunton Park

Carlisle vs Boston United prediction & analysis

62%

Footrivo pick

Both teams to score

Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.62

5/10Rating

1.62Odds

Quick tips for this match

ResultCarlisle to win65% · @1.40

Double chanceCarlisle or draw86% · @1.12

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score62% · @1.62

GoalsOver 1.5 goals84% · @1.12

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.26

Win chances

Carlisle65%fair 1.55 · @1.40

Draw22%fair 4.58 · @4.60

Boston United14%fair 7.34 · @6.25

3.32Expected goals

2.30Carlisle xG

1.02Boston United xG

62%Both score

65%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

2–110%

2–010%

1–18%

1–08%

3–17%

3–07%

From our goals model: Carlisle 2.3 – 1.0 Boston United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Carlisle are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 14% for Boston United.

Carlisle have taken 16 points from their last 6 matches (5W 1D 0L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.7 per game. Boston United have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 2.2 scored and 2.5 conceded. Carlisle come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 3.3 goals (2.3 for Carlisle, 1.0 for Boston United). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (10%), 1–1 (8%).

Our pick is Both teams to score at a 62% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.62 is close to our fair price of 1.60.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Carlisle to win	65%	1.55	1.40
Double chance	Carlisle or draw	86%	1.16	1.12
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	62%	1.60	1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	84%	1.19	1.12
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals	65%	1.54	1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	56%	1.80	1.73
Half-time result	Carlisle ahead at half-time	49%	2.04	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Carlisle / FT Carlisle	44%	2.30	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1	10%	10.26	–

Form

Carlisle – last 6

WWWWWD

7 Nov	vs Salford City	1–0	W
31 Oct	@ Altrincham	4–2	W
28 Oct	vs Harrogate Town	3–0	W
24 Oct	@ Solihull Moors	2–1	W
17 Oct	vs Tamworth	2–1	W
10 Oct	vs Kidderminster Harriers	0–0	D

2.0Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Boston United – last 6

WWWLLL

3 Nov	vs Leicester City U21	1–0	W
31 Oct	vs Scunthorpe	2–1	W
27 Oct	vs Gateshead	2–1	W
24 Oct	@ Eastleigh	2–4	L
17 Oct	vs Scunthorpe	1–3	L
13 Oct	vs Southampton U21	5–6	L

2.2Scored / game

2.5Conceded / game

83%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Carlisle and Boston United.

National League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Boreham Wood	16	14	2	0	+27	44
2	Harrogate Town	16	10	2	4	+11	32
3	Southend	16	8	5	3	+11	29
4	AFC Fylde	16	9	2	5	+6	29
5	Yeovil Town	16	8	4	4	+15	28
6	Worthing	16	8	4	4	+7	28
7	Altrincham	16	9	1	6	0	28
8	Carlisle	16	7	5	4	+9	26
9	Barrow	15	7	4	4	+7	25
10	FC Halifax Town	16	7	3	6	+8	24
11	Sutton Utd	16	7	3	6	-1	24
12	Woking	16	6	3	7	+1	21
13	Kidderminster Harriers	16	5	6	5	+1	21
14	Aldershot Town	16	6	3	7	0	21
15	AFC Hornchurch	16	7	0	9	-8	21
16	Forest Green	14	5	4	5	-1	19
17	Eastleigh	16	5	4	7	-6	19
18	Wealdstone	16	5	3	8	-6	18
19	Boston United	16	5	3	8	-8	18
20	Tamworth	15	5	2	8	-7	17
21	Hartlepool	16	5	0	11	-9	15
22	Solihull Moors	16	4	1	11	-21	13
23	Scunthorpe	15	3	1	11	-11	10
24	Gateshead	15	1	1	13	-25	4

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