Value bet: Academica to win @ 2.93 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultAcademica to win38% · @2.93
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–111% · fair 9.29
Portimonense vs Academica preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda Liga sees Portimonense take on Academica on Sunday 15 November, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT). Portimonense are 10th with 14 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Academica sit 6th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Portimonense's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat FC Porto B 1–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Academica's last 5: DLWWW Most recently they drew with Amarante 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Portimonense and 1.2 for Academica. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Academica to win at 2.93 – 38% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Prediction
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Portimonense 1–1 Academica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Portimonense38%fair 2.65 · @2.31
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.20
Academica38%fair 2.62 · @2.93
2.43Expected goals
1.21Portimonense xG
1.22Academica xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Portimonense 1.2 – 1.2 Academica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Academica to win
38%
2.62
2.93 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.86
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.44
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
56%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Academica / FT Academica
21%
4.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
11%
9.29
–
Form
Portimonense – last 6
WDLWWW
8 Nov
@ FC Porto B
1–0
W
31 Oct
vs Torreense
0–0
D
24 Oct
@ Sporting CP B
0–3
L
17 Oct
@ Florgrade
2–1
W
10 Oct
@ Amarante
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ Castro Daire
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Academica – last 6
DLWWWW
7 Nov
vs Amarante
1–1
D
1 Nov
@ Vizela
1–2
L
24 Oct
vs Leixoes
4–0
W
17 Oct
vs Amarante
3–2
W
11 Oct
@ União de Leiria
2–0
W
18 Sep
@ Real
4–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Portimonense and Academica.
What is the prediction for Portimonense vs Academica?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Portimonense vs Academica?
On our numbers Portimonense have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Academica 38%.
How many goals will there be in Portimonense vs Academica?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Portimonense vs Academica?
Our predicted score is Portimonense 1–1 Academica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Portimonense vs Academica?
Portimonense vs Academica (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
