Segunda Liga · PortugalLeixoes vs Chaves prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.25
Value bet: Chaves to win @ 3.46 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Leixoes 1.6 – 1.3 Chaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Leixoes hold the edge on home soil with a 46% chance of winning, against 33% for Chaves.
Leixoes have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.0 per game. Chaves have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.6 for Leixoes, 1.3 for Chaves). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 62%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.33. For a bigger price, Chaves to win at 3.46 is our value angle (33% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Leixoes to win | 46% | 2.17 | 1.98 |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 79% | 1.26 | 1.27 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 62% | 1.61 | 1.72 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.91 | 1.88 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | 1.28 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 41% | 2.47 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Leixoes / FT Leixoes | 26% | 3.78 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 | 9% | 10.94 | – |
Form
Leixoes – last 6
| 7 Nov | @ Felgueiras 1932 | 3–3 | D |
| 31 Oct | vs Sporting CP B | 1–2 | L |
| 24 Oct | @ Academica | 0–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | @ Vianense | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | vs FC Porto B | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Cinfães | 4–0 | W |
Chaves – last 6
| 7 Nov | vs Penafiel | 2–3 | L |
| 31 Oct | @ Benfica B | 1–3 | L |
| 23 Oct | vs Vizela | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Oct | vs Os Marialvas | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Lusitânia Lourosa | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Oct | @ Farense | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leixoes and Chaves.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penafiel | 10 | +12 | 22 |
| 2 |  Sporting CP B | 10 | +8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Benfica B | 10 | +6 | 20 |
| 4 |  Lusitânia Lourosa | 10 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 |  União de Leiria | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academica | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 |  Tondela | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Farense | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Vizela | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Portimonense | 10 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 |  AVS | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Leixoes | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 |  Torreense | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Amarante | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 |  Felgueiras 1932 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 |  FC Porto B | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Chaves | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Feirense | 10 | -8 | 5 |
More Segunda Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Leixoes vs Chaves?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Leixoes vs Chaves?
On our numbers Leixoes have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Chaves 33%.
How many goals will there be in Leixoes vs Chaves?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Leixoes vs Chaves?
Leixoes vs Chaves (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.