Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.72 – our chance 64% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeixoes to win48% · @1.98
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.27
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score64% · @1.72
GoalsOver 1.5 goals78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.72
Leixoes vs Chaves preview and prediction
The match
Leixoes host Chaves in the Segunda Liga on Sunday 15 November, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT). Leixoes are 12th with 11 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Chaves sit 17th on 8 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Leixoes's last 5: DLLLL Most recently they drew with Felgueiras 1932 3–3 away. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Chaves's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to Penafiel 2–3 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Chaves arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.8 for Leixoes and 1.4 for Chaves. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Leixoes 48%, draw 22%, Chaves 30%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.72.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.72 – 64% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Prediction
Our prediction: Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Leixoes 1–1 Chaves. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leixoes48%fair 2.10 · @1.98
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.42
Chaves30%fair 3.31 · @3.46
3.22Expected goals
1.84Leixoes xG
1.38Chaves xG
64%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–19%
1–07%
1–27%
2–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Leixoes 1.8 – 1.4 Chaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Leixoes
Chaves
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
+14%
-2%
Goals conceded vs average
+32%
+43%
Our expected goals here
2.16
1.57
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leixoes to win
48%
2.10
1.98
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.28
1.27
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
64%
1.57
1.72 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
78%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
56%
1.79
1.88 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
65%
1.54
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time
38%
2.65
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leixoes / FT Leixoes
30%
3.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.72
–
Form
Leixoes – last 6
DLLLLW
7 Nov
@ Felgueiras 1932
3–3
D
31 Oct
vs Sporting CP B
1–2
L
24 Oct
@ Academica
0–4
L
17 Oct
@ Vianense
0–1
L
10 Oct
vs FC Porto B
1–2
L
20 Sep
@ Cinfães
4–0
W
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Chaves – last 6
LLWWDL
7 Nov
vs Penafiel
2–3
L
31 Oct
@ Benfica B
1–3
L
23 Oct
vs Vizela
2–1
W
16 Oct
vs Os Marialvas
2–1
W
11 Oct
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ Farense
0–4
L
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leixoes and Chaves.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Leixoes vs Chaves?
On our numbers Leixoes have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chaves 30%.
How many goals will there be in Leixoes vs Chaves?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leixoes vs Chaves?
Our predicted score is Leixoes 1–1 Chaves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Leixoes vs Chaves?
Leixoes vs Chaves (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
