Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa prediction & analysis
73%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.31
8/10Rating
1.31Odds
1
Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 2.36 – our chance 46% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenafiel to win46% · @2.36
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.78
GoalsOver 1.5 goals73% · @1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.47
Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda Liga sees Penafiel take on Lusitânia Lourosa on Sunday 15 November, kicking off at 16:30 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril. Penafiel are 1st with 22 points from 10 games (top of the table), while Lusitânia Lourosa sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Penafiel's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Chaves 3–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Lusitânia Lourosa's last 5: LDDWD Most recently they lost to Feirense 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Penafiel arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 16 February 2026, finished Penafiel 2–0 Lusitânia Lourosa.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.7 for Penafiel and 1.1 for Lusitânia Lourosa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Penafiel to win at 2.36 – 46% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Prediction
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.31. Predicted score: Penafiel 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penafiel46%fair 2.16 · @2.36
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @2.88
Lusitânia Lourosa28%fair 3.54 · @3.18
2.80Expected goals
1.66Penafiel xG
1.14Lusitânia Lourosa xG
58%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–110%
2–08%
0–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Penafiel 1.7 – 1.1 Lusitânia Lourosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Penafiel
Lusitânia Lourosa
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
+51%
-0%
Goals conceded vs average
-3%
-7%
Our expected goals here
1.86
1.17
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.31.
Who will win Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
On our numbers Penafiel have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lusitânia Lourosa 28%.
How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our predicted score is Penafiel 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
