Segunda Liga · PortugalTondela vs Farense prediction & analysis
Tondela or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.23
Value bet: Tondela to win @ 1.92 – our chance 64% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Tondela 1.9 – 0.8 Farense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Tondela are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 15% for Farense.
Tondela have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.0 per game. Farense have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 2.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.6 goals (1.9 for Tondela, 0.8 for Farense). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 48%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 2–0 (13%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Tondela or draw at a 85% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.23 is better than our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Tondela to win at 1.92 is our value angle (64% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Tondela to win | 64% | 1.56 | 1.92 ▲ |
| Double chance | Tondela or draw | 85% | 1.18 | 1.23 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score | 52% | 1.94 | 1.84 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 | 1.29 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.90 | 1.72 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 | 1.21 |
| Half-time result | Tondela ahead at half-time | 45% | 2.22 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Tondela / FT Tondela | 40% | 2.48 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 | 13% | 7.42 | – |
Form
Tondela – last 6
| 8 Nov | @ Sporting CP B | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Nov | vs Felgueiras 1932 | 3–2 | W |
| 25 Oct | @ AVS | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Alverca | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | vs Torreense | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Imortal Albufeira | 5–1 | W |
Farense – last 6
| 8 Nov | vs Benfica B | 2–3 | L |
| 1 Nov | @ Lusitânia Lourosa | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Oct | vs Penafiel | 1–4 | L |
| 17 Oct | vs AD Marco 09 | 3–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs Feirense | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Chaves | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tondela and Farense.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penafiel | 10 | +12 | 22 |
| 2 |  Sporting CP B | 10 | +8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Benfica B | 10 | +6 | 20 |
| 4 |  Lusitânia Lourosa | 10 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 |  União de Leiria | 10 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |  Academica | 10 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 |  Tondela | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 8 |  Farense | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 9 |  Vizela | 10 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Portimonense | 10 | -3 | 14 |
| 11 |  AVS | 10 | +1 | 13 |
| 12 |  Leixoes | 10 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 |  Torreense | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 |  Amarante | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 |  Felgueiras 1932 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 16 |  FC Porto B | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Chaves | 10 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Feirense | 10 | -8 | 5 |
More Segunda Liga predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Tondela vs Farense?
Our pick is Tondela or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Tondela vs Farense?
On our numbers Tondela have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Farense 15%.
How many goals will there be in Tondela vs Farense?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
When is Tondela vs Farense?
Tondela vs Farense (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.