GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont prediction & analysis
88%
Footrivo pick
GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: GAP Connah S Quay FC to win @ 1.91 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGAP Connah S Quay FC to win ✓62% · @1.91
Double chanceGAP Connah S Quay FC or draw ✓88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.11
GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees GAP Connah S Quay FC take on Penybont on Saturday 3 October, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT) at Essity Stadium. GAP Connah S Quay FC are 2nd with 38 points from 16 games (in the top four), while Penybont sit 3rd on 36 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
GAP Connah S Quay FC's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Barry Town 4–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Penybont's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Airbus UK 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Penybont arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 2.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for GAP Connah S Quay FC and 0.9 for Penybont. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 56% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: GAP Connah S Quay FC 62%, draw 26%, Penybont 12%.
Safer route: GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw (88%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.75.
Value angle: GAP Connah S Quay FC to win at 1.91 – 62% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: GAP Connah S Quay FC 2–0 Penybont. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
GAP Connah S Quay FC62%fair 1.61 · @1.91
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.20
Penybont12%fair 8.20 · @3.80
3.00Expected goals
2.10GAP Connah S Quay FC xG
0.90Penybont xG
56%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: GAP Connah S Quay FC 2.1 – 0.9 Penybont expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
GAP Connah S Quay FC to win✓
62%
1.61
1.91 ▲
Double chance
GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
GAP Connah S Quay FC ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT GAP Connah S Quay FC / FT GAP Connah S Quay FC✗
42%
2.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.11
–
Form
GAP Connah S Quay FC – last 6
WWWLDW
26 Sep
@ Barry Town
4–1
W
18 Sep
vs Cardiff MET
1–0
W
15 Sep
vs Airbus UK
3–0
W
12 Sep
@ Colwyn Bay
1–2
L
4 Sep
vs Haverfordwest County AFC
1–1
D
31 Aug
@ Flint Town United
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Penybont – last 6
WWWWWD
26 Sep
vs Airbus UK
2–1
W
18 Sep
@ Ammanford AFC
5–1
W
15 Sep
vs Briton Ferry
3–2
W
11 Sep
@ Trefelin
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Colwyn Bay
1–0
W
31 Aug
@ Cambrian & Clydach
2–2
D
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between GAP Connah S Quay FC and Penybont.
What is the prediction for GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont?
Our pick is GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont?
On our numbers GAP Connah S Quay FC have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Penybont 12%.
How many goals will there be in GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont?
Our predicted score is GAP Connah S Quay FC 2–0 Penybont, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont?
GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Essity Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
