Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVitória SC to win ✗66% · @1.50
Double chanceVitória SC or draw ✓89% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.88
Vitória SC vs Moreirense preview and prediction
The match
Moreirense travel to Estádio D. Afonso Henriques in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 20 September (15:30 WAT) to face Vitória SC. Vitória SC are 14th with 9 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Moreirense sit 9th on 14 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Vitória SC's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Academico Viseu 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Moreirense's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Maritimo 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Moreirense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Vitória SC and 0.7 for Moreirense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 55% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Vitória SC to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Vitória SC 1–0 Moreirense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vitória SC66%fair 1.51 · @1.50
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.90
Moreirense11%fair 9.28 · @6.00
2.58Expected goals
1.92Vitória SC xG
0.66Moreirense xG
55%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Vitória SC 1.9 – 0.7 Moreirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vitória SC to win✗
66%
1.51
1.50
Double chance
Vitória SC or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Vitória SC ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vitória SC / FT Vitória SC✗
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.88
–
Form
Vitória SC – last 6
LDLWLL
12 Sep
@ Academico Viseu
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Casa Pia
0–0
D
31 Aug
@ SC Braga
0–1
L
23 Aug
vs Nacional
1–0
W
14 Aug
@ Sporting CP
2–3
L
8 Aug
vs Arouca
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Moreirense – last 6
WLLWLD
14 Sep
vs Maritimo
3–1
W
9 Sep
vs Benfica
0–4
L
4 Sep
@ FC Porto
1–2
L
30 Aug
@ Casa Pia
1–0
W
16 Aug
@ Arouca
0–4
L
9 Aug
vs SC Braga
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vitória SC and Moreirense.
What is the prediction for Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
Our pick is Vitória SC to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
On our numbers Vitória SC have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Moreirense 11%.
How many goals will there be in Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
Our predicted score is Vitória SC 1–0 Moreirense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Vitória SC vs Moreirense?
Vitória SC vs Moreirense (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
