Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultEstoril to win ✗58% · @1.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 6.03
Estoril vs Casa Pia preview and prediction
The match
Casa Pia travel to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 20 September (18:00 WAT) to face Estoril. Estoril are 18th with 2 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Casa Pia sit 16th on 8 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Estoril's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to SC Braga 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Casa Pia's last 5: LDLLL Most recently they lost to FC Porto 1–4 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.5 for Estoril and 0.7 for Casa Pia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Estoril 58%, draw 19%, Casa Pia 22%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Estoril to win – a 58% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.71, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Estoril 1–0 Casa Pia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estoril58%fair 1.71 · @1.75
Draw19%fair 5.18 · @3.50
Casa Pia22%fair 4.50 · @4.40
2.17Expected goals
1.45Estoril xG
0.72Casa Pia xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–012%
1–112%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Estoril 1.5 – 0.7 Casa Pia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Estoril to win✗
58%
1.71
1.75
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Estoril / FT Estoril✗
33%
3.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
6.03
–
Form
Estoril – last 6
LDLLLD
14 Sep
@ SC Braga
0–1
L
7 Sep
vs Arouca
0–0
D
31 Aug
@ Benfica
1–2
L
22 Aug
vs Rio Ave
0–2
L
16 Aug
@ Nacional
0–2
L
7 Aug
vs Famalicao
1–1
D
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Casa Pia – last 6
LDLLLL
12 Sep
vs FC Porto
1–4
L
6 Sep
@ Vitória SC
0–0
D
30 Aug
vs Moreirense
0–1
L
24 Aug
@ GIL Vicente
0–2
L
17 Aug
vs Benfica
0–7
L
8 Aug
@ Maritimo
0–1
L
0.2Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estoril and Casa Pia.
Our pick is Estoril to win with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Estoril vs Casa Pia?
On our numbers Estoril have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Casa Pia 22%.
How many goals will there be in Estoril vs Casa Pia?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Our predicted score is Estoril 1–0 Casa Pia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Estoril vs Casa Pia?
Estoril vs Casa Pia (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
