Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultBenfica to win ✗41% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.67
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.91
FC Porto vs Benfica preview and prediction
The match
The Primeira Liga sees FC Porto take on Benfica on Sunday 20 September, kicking off at 20:30 (WAT) at Estádio do Dragão. FC Porto are 1st with 33 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Benfica sit 2nd on 28 points (in the top four).
Form guide
FC Porto's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Casa Pia 4–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Benfica's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat AC Milan 2–0 away. On the road they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Benfica arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 2.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 8 March 2026, finished Benfica 2–2 FC Porto.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 1.7 for FC Porto and 1.8 for Benfica. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score in 66% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Porto 35%, draw 24%, Benfica 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 66% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.52, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FC Porto 1–1 Benfica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Porto35%fair 2.84 · @2.62
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.25
Benfica41%fair 2.45 · @2.50
3.50Expected goals
1.68FC Porto xG
1.82Benfica xG
66%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–19%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–15%
1–35%
From our goals model: FC Porto 1.7 – 1.8 Benfica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win FC Porto vs Benfica?
On our numbers FC Porto have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Benfica 41%.
How many goals will there be in FC Porto vs Benfica?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Porto vs Benfica?
Our predicted score is FC Porto 1–1 Benfica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is FC Porto vs Benfica?
FC Porto vs Benfica (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Dragão.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
