Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Concarneau to win @ 1.95 – our chance 63% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultConcarneau to win ✗63% · @1.95
Double chanceConcarneau or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.26
Concarneau vs Bastia preview and prediction
The match
The National 1 sees Concarneau take on Bastia on Saturday 17 October, kicking off at 13:45 (WAT) at Stade Guy Piriou. Concarneau are 6th with 20 points from 12 games (in the top half), while Bastia sit 13th on 15 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Concarneau's last 5: WDWWD Most recently they beat Gobelins 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Bastia's last 5: DLDWL Most recently they drew with Orleans 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Concarneau arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for Concarneau and 0.5 for Bastia. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Value angle: Concarneau to win at 1.95 – 63% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Concarneau or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Concarneau 1–0 Bastia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Concarneau63%fair 1.59 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @2.90
Bastia13%fair 7.68 · @3.60
2.11Expected goals
1.57Concarneau xG
0.54Bastia xG
48%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Concarneau 1.6 – 0.5 Bastia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Concarneau to win✗
63%
1.59
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Concarneau or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Concarneau / FT Concarneau✗
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.26
–
Form
Concarneau – last 6
WDWWDD
3 Oct
vs Gobelins
2–1
W
26 Sep
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Caen
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Aubagne
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs Thionville Lusitanos
2–2
D
29 Aug
@ Valenciennes
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Bastia – last 6
DLDWLW
1 Oct
vs Orleans
1–1
D
26 Sep
@ Gobelins
0–1
L
17 Sep
vs Cannes
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Bourg-en-bresse 01
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Amiens
0–3
L
27 Aug
@ Caen
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Concarneau and Bastia.
Our pick is Concarneau or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Concarneau vs Bastia?
On our numbers Concarneau have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Bastia 13%.
How many goals will there be in Concarneau vs Bastia?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Concarneau vs Bastia?
Our predicted score is Concarneau 1–0 Bastia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Concarneau vs Bastia?
Concarneau vs Bastia (National 1) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Guy Piriou.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
