Value bet: Badajoz to win @ 2.88 – our chance 42% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBadajoz to win ✗42% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.86
Las Palmas II vs Badajoz preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 4 sees Las Palmas II take on Badajoz on Sunday 27 September, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT). Las Palmas II are 18th with 5 points from 10 games (in the bottom three), while Badajoz sit 4th on 17 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Las Palmas II's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Linares Deportivo 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Badajoz's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Real Betis II 0–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Badajoz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.9 for Las Palmas II and 1.1 for Badajoz. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Las Palmas II 34%, draw 24%, Badajoz 42%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Badajoz to win at 2.88 – 42% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Las Palmas II 0–1 Badajoz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Las Palmas II34%fair 2.92 · @2.38
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @2.90
Badajoz42%fair 2.37 · @2.88
2.00Expected goals
0.92Las Palmas II xG
1.08Badajoz xG
47%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–014%
1–113%
1–012%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Las Palmas II 0.9 – 1.1 Badajoz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Badajoz to win✗
42%
2.37
2.88 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
22%
4.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.86
–
Form
Las Palmas II – last 6
WLLDWL
20 Sep
@ Linares Deportivo
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Don Benito
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Real Betis II
0–1
L
3 May
@ Socuéllamos
1–1
D
26 Apr
vs Orihuela
2–1
W
19 Apr
@ Getafe II
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Badajoz – last 6
LWWDWD
20 Sep
vs Real Betis II
0–1
L
13 Sep
@ Xerez
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Tenerife II
2–1
W
20 Jun
@ Cuarte
1–1
D
14 Jun
vs Cuarte
2–1
W
7 Jun
vs Moralo
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Las Palmas II and Badajoz.
What is the prediction for Las Palmas II vs Badajoz?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Las Palmas II vs Badajoz?
On our numbers Las Palmas II have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Badajoz 42%.
How many goals will there be in Las Palmas II vs Badajoz?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Las Palmas II vs Badajoz?
Our predicted score is Las Palmas II 0–1 Badajoz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Las Palmas II vs Badajoz?
Las Palmas II vs Badajoz (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
