Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Poblense to win @ 1.91 – our chance 64% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPoblense to win ✓64% · @1.91
Double chancePoblense or draw ✓88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓16% · fair 6.08
Poblense vs Peña Deportiva preview and prediction
The match
Poblense host Peña Deportiva in the Segunda División RFEF Group 3 on Sunday 25 October, with kick-off at 12:00 (WAT). Poblense are 11th with 13 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Peña Deportiva sit 18th on 7 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Poblense's last 5: DWLWL Most recently they drew with Yeclano 2–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Peña Deportiva's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat Orihuela 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Poblense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Poblense and 0.6 for Peña Deportiva. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Poblense to win at 1.91 – 64% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Poblense or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Poblense 1–0 Peña Deportiva. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Poblense64%fair 1.56 · @1.91
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @2.90
Peña Deportiva12%fair 8.08 · @3.90
2.36Expected goals
1.74Poblense xG
0.62Peña Deportiva xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Poblense 1.7 – 0.6 Peña Deportiva expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Poblense to win✓
64%
1.56
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Poblense or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Half-time result
Poblense ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Poblense / FT Poblense✗
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
16%
6.08
–
Form
Poblense – last 6
DWLWLL
18 Oct
@ Yeclano
2–2
D
11 Oct
vs Castellón II
2–1
W
4 Oct
@ Atlético Baleares
1–2
L
27 Sep
vs Valencia II
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Alcoyano
0–2
L
13 Sep
vs Castellonense
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Peña Deportiva – last 6
WLLLDL
11 Oct
vs Orihuela
3–1
W
4 Oct
@ Valencia II
2–3
L
27 Sep
vs Real Murcia II
0–2
L
20 Sep
@ Elche II
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs Yeclano
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Deportiva Minera
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Poblense and Peña Deportiva.
What is the prediction for Poblense vs Peña Deportiva?
Our pick is Poblense or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Poblense vs Peña Deportiva?
On our numbers Poblense have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Peña Deportiva 12%.
How many goals will there be in Poblense vs Peña Deportiva?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Poblense vs Peña Deportiva?
Our predicted score is Poblense 1–0 Peña Deportiva, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Poblense vs Peña Deportiva?
Poblense vs Peña Deportiva (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
