Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Castellón II to win @ 1.95 – our chance 64% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCastellón II to win ✓64% · @1.95
Double chanceCastellón II or draw ✓86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.08
Castellón II vs La Nucía preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División RFEF Group 3 sees Castellón II take on La Nucía on Sunday 25 October, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT). Castellón II are 3rd with 18 points from 9 games (in the top four), while La Nucía sit 5th on 15 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Castellón II's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Poblense 1–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
La Nucía's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Lorca Deportiva 1–3 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Castellón II and 0.9 for La Nucía. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Castellón II 64%, draw 22%, La Nucía 14%.
Safer route: Castellón II or draw (86%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Castellón II to win at 1.95 – 64% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Castellón II or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Castellón II 2–0 La Nucía. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Castellón II64%fair 1.56 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.20
La Nucía14%fair 7.30 · @3.40
3.00Expected goals
2.10Castellón II xG
0.90La Nucía xG
57%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Castellón II 2.1 – 0.9 La Nucía expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castellón II to win✓
64%
1.56
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Castellón II or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Castellón II ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castellón II / FT Castellón II✗
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.08
–
Form
Castellón II – last 6
LWWWWL
11 Oct
@ Poblense
1–2
L
3 Oct
vs Lorca Deportiva
2–1
W
26 Sep
@ Orihuela
4–1
W
19 Sep
@ Valencia II
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs Alcoyano
3–0
W
6 Sep
vs Terrassa
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
La Nucía – last 6
LLWWWW
11 Oct
vs Lorca Deportiva
1–3
L
4 Oct
@ Deportiva Minera
0–2
L
27 Sep
vs Mallorca II
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Yeclano
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Real Murcia II
5–1
W
6 Sep
vs Poblense
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Castellón II and La Nucía.
What is the prediction for Castellón II vs La Nucía?
Our pick is Castellón II or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Castellón II vs La Nucía?
On our numbers Castellón II have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and La Nucía 14%.
How many goals will there be in Castellón II vs La Nucía?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Castellón II vs La Nucía?
Our predicted score is Castellón II 2–0 La Nucía, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Castellón II vs La Nucía?
Castellón II vs La Nucía (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
