Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLugo to win ✓45% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.96
Lugo vs Mérida AD preview and prediction
The match
Mérida AD travel to Estadio Anxo Carro in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 1 November (18:45 WAT) to face Lugo. Lugo are 1st with 28 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Mérida AD sit 8th on 16 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Lugo's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Real Unión 1–4 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Mérida AD's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with CD Coria 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lugo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Lugo and 1.3 for Mérida AD. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lugo 45%, draw 22%, Mérida AD 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 59% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.69, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lugo 1–1 Mérida AD. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lugo45%fair 2.23 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.00
Mérida AD33%fair 3.04 · @3.00
2.83Expected goals
1.55Lugo xG
1.28Mérida AD xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Lugo 1.5 – 1.3 Mérida AD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lugo to win✓
45%
2.23
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lugo / FT Lugo✓
26%
3.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.96
–
Form
Lugo – last 6
LWWWWW
23 Oct
@ Real Unión
1–4
L
17 Oct
vs Deportivo La Coruña II
3–0
W
12 Oct
vs UD Logroñés
3–1
W
2 Oct
@ Real Avilés
2–1
W
26 Sep
vs Racing Ferrol
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Zamora
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Mérida AD – last 6
DWWWLL
25 Oct
vs CD Coria
0–0
D
18 Oct
@ Arenas Getxo
4–0
W
11 Oct
@ Pontevedra
2–1
W
4 Oct
vs Cacereño
2–0
W
27 Sep
vs UD Logroñés
3–5
L
19 Sep
@ Ponferradina
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lugo and Mérida AD.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Lugo vs Mérida AD?
On our numbers Lugo have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Mérida AD 33%.
How many goals will there be in Lugo vs Mérida AD?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lugo vs Mérida AD?
Our predicted score is Lugo 1–1 Mérida AD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Lugo vs Mérida AD?
Lugo vs Mérida AD (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Anxo Carro.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
