Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
2
Value bet: UD Ourense to win @ 3.10 – our chance 40% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUD Ourense to win ✗40% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 10.65
Arenas Getxo vs UD Ourense preview and prediction
The match
UD Ourense travel to Estadio Municipal de Fadura in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Saturday 24 October (15:00 WAT) to face Arenas Getxo. Arenas Getxo are 19th with 11 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while UD Ourense sit 20th on 8 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Arenas Getxo's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Mérida AD 0–4 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
UD Ourense's last 5: LWDDL Most recently they lost to Real Avilés 0–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
UD Ourense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.8 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Arenas Getxo and 1.4 for UD Ourense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arenas Getxo 36%, draw 24%, UD Ourense 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.75.
Value angle: UD Ourense to win at 3.10 – 40% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 61% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.65, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Arenas Getxo 1–1 UD Ourense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arenas Getxo36%fair 2.77 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.00
UD Ourense40%fair 2.53 · @3.10
2.69Expected goals
1.31Arenas Getxo xG
1.38UD Ourense xG
61%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Arenas Getxo 1.3 – 1.4 UD Ourense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
UD Ourense to win✗
40%
2.53
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.98
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT UD Ourense / FT UD Ourense✗
23%
4.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
10.65
–
Form
Arenas Getxo – last 6
LLDLLL
18 Oct
vs Mérida AD
0–4
L
12 Oct
@ Cultural Leonesa
1–4
L
3 Oct
@ Barakaldo
1–1
D
26 Sep
vs Athletic Club II
0–3
L
20 Sep
@ Cacereño
0–3
L
13 Sep
vs Zamora
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
UD Ourense – last 6
LWDDLL
18 Oct
@ Real Avilés
0–3
L
10 Oct
vs Barakaldo
1–0
W
3 Oct
@ Real Unión
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Cacereño
0–0
D
19 Sep
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
1–3
L
12 Sep
vs UD Logroñés
0–3
L
0.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arenas Getxo and UD Ourense.
What is the prediction for Arenas Getxo vs UD Ourense?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Arenas Getxo vs UD Ourense?
On our numbers Arenas Getxo have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and UD Ourense 40%.
How many goals will there be in Arenas Getxo vs UD Ourense?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arenas Getxo vs UD Ourense?
Our predicted score is Arenas Getxo 1–1 UD Ourense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Arenas Getxo vs UD Ourense?
Arenas Getxo vs UD Ourense (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Fadura.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
