The Primera División RFEF Group 1 sees UD Ourense take on Cacereño on Sunday 27 September, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT) at Estadio de O Couto. UD Ourense are 20th with 8 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Cacereño sit 10th on 15 points (in the top half).
Form guide
UD Ourense's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Unionistas de Salamanca 1–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Cacereño's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Arenas Getxo 3–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cacereño arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.8 for UD Ourense and 1.3 for Cacereño. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: UD Ourense 25%, draw 23%, Cacereño 51%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cacereño to win – a 51% chance at odds of 2.50, above our fair price of 1.95, so there is value in it. Predicted score: UD Ourense 0–1 Cacereño. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
UD Ourense25%fair 3.95 · @2.60
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @2.90
Cacereño51%fair 1.95 · @2.50
2.13Expected goals
0.81UD Ourense xG
1.32Cacereño xG
54%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
1–113%
0–012%
0–210%
1–010%
1–28%
From our goals model: UD Ourense 0.8 – 1.3 Cacereño expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cacereño to win✗
51%
1.95
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.31
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cacereño / FT Cacereño✗
29%
3.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.36
–
Form
UD Ourense – last 6
LLLLWW
19 Sep
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
1–3
L
12 Sep
vs UD Logroñés
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Mirandes
0–2
L
29 Aug
vs Ponferradina
0–1
L
31 May
@ Conquense
2–0
W
24 May
vs Conquense
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Cacereño – last 6
WLWWDW
20 Sep
vs Arenas Getxo
3–0
W
16 Sep
@ Recreativo Huelva
1–2
L
13 Sep
vs Cultural Leonesa
1–0
W
9 Sep
vs UD San Pedro
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
1–1
D
28 Aug
vs Mirandes
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between UD Ourense and Cacereño.
What is the prediction for UD Ourense vs Cacereño?
Our pick is Cacereño to win with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.50.
Who will win UD Ourense vs Cacereño?
On our numbers UD Ourense have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cacereño 51%.
How many goals will there be in UD Ourense vs Cacereño?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for UD Ourense vs Cacereño?
Our predicted score is UD Ourense 0–1 Cacereño, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is UD Ourense vs Cacereño?
UD Ourense vs Cacereño (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de O Couto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
