Value bet: Ponferradina to win @ 3.50 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPontevedra to win ✗45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.00
Pontevedra vs Ponferradina preview and prediction
The match
Pontevedra host Ponferradina in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 27 September, with kick-off at 17:15 (WAT). Pontevedra are 3rd with 18 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Ponferradina sit 11th on 15 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Pontevedra's last 5: DLWWL Most recently they drew with UD Logroñés 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Ponferradina's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat Mérida AD 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.2 for Pontevedra and 0.9 for Ponferradina. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Value angle: Ponferradina to win at 3.50 – 31% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.83, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Pontevedra 1–1 Ponferradina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pontevedra45%fair 2.21 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @2.88
Ponferradina31%fair 3.20 · @3.50
2.13Expected goals
1.20Pontevedra xG
0.93Ponferradina xG
55%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Pontevedra 1.2 – 0.9 Ponferradina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pontevedra to win✗
45%
2.21
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pontevedra / FT Pontevedra✗
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.00
–
Form
Pontevedra – last 6
DLWWLW
18 Sep
@ UD Logroñés
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Athletic Club II
1–3
L
5 Sep
vs Arenas Getxo
4–1
W
28 Aug
@ Real Avilés
1–0
W
19 Aug
@ Coruxo
1–3
L
15 Aug
vs Ourense CF
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Ponferradina – last 6
WLDWDW
19 Sep
vs Mérida AD
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
1–2
L
4 Sep
vs Lugo
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ UD Ourense
1–0
W
19 Aug
vs Real Madrid II
2–2
D
8 Aug
@ Marino de Luanco
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pontevedra and Ponferradina.
What is the prediction for Pontevedra vs Ponferradina?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Pontevedra vs Ponferradina?
On our numbers Pontevedra have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ponferradina 31%.
How many goals will there be in Pontevedra vs Ponferradina?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pontevedra vs Ponferradina?
Our predicted score is Pontevedra 1–1 Ponferradina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Pontevedra vs Ponferradina?
Pontevedra vs Ponferradina (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
