Value bet: UD Logroñés to win @ 2.75 – our chance 44% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUD Logroñés to win ✓44% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.57
Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés preview and prediction
The match
Mérida AD host UD Logroñés in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 27 September, with kick-off at 17:15 (WAT) at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto. Mérida AD are 8th with 16 points from 11 games (in the top half), while UD Logroñés sit 2nd on 23 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Mérida AD's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Ponferradina 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
UD Logroñés's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Pontevedra 1–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
UD Logroñés arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Mérida AD and 1.4 for UD Logroñés. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mérida AD 32%, draw 23%, UD Logroñés 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.80.
Value angle: UD Logroñés to win at 2.75 – 44% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.73, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mérida AD 1–1 UD Logroñés. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mérida AD32%fair 3.12 · @2.40
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @2.88
UD Logroñés44%fair 2.25 · @2.75
2.63Expected goals
1.18Mérida AD xG
1.45UD Logroñés xG
58%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Mérida AD 1.2 – 1.4 UD Logroñés expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
UD Logroñés to win✓
44%
2.25
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT UD Logroñés / FT UD Logroñés✓
25%
3.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.57
–
Form
Mérida AD – last 6
LLLWWL
19 Sep
@ Ponferradina
0–1
L
12 Sep
vs Mirandes
3–4
L
6 Sep
@ Cultural Leonesa
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruña II
1–0
W
14 Aug
vs Alcorcon
2–1
W
7 Aug
@ Leganes
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
UD Logroñés – last 6
DWWWWW
18 Sep
vs Pontevedra
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ UD Ourense
3–0
W
6 Sep
@ Zamora
2–1
W
31 Aug
vs Extremadura 1924
2–1
W
22 Aug
vs Huesca II
4–0
W
21 Aug
vs Mirandes
4–0
W
2.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mérida AD and UD Logroñés.
What is the prediction for Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés?
On our numbers Mérida AD have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and UD Logroñés 44%.
How many goals will there be in Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés?
Our predicted score is Mérida AD 1–1 UD Logroñés, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés?
Mérida AD vs UD Logroñés (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
