Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Barakaldo to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBarakaldo to win ✗63% · @1.85
Double chanceBarakaldo or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.51
Barakaldo vs Real Avilés preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División RFEF Group 1 sees Barakaldo take on Real Avilés on Sunday 27 September, kicking off at 11:00 (WAT) at Campo de Lasesarre. Barakaldo are 12th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Real Avilés sit 4th on 17 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Barakaldo's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Racing Ferrol 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Real Avilés's last 5: DWLLW Most recently they drew with CD Coria 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Real Avilés arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Barakaldo and 0.6 for Real Avilés. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Barakaldo 63%, draw 20%, Real Avilés 17%.
Safer route: Barakaldo or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Barakaldo to win at 1.85 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Barakaldo or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Barakaldo 1–0 Real Avilés. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Barakaldo63%fair 1.60 · @1.85
Draw20%fair 4.99 · @3.10
Real Avilés17%fair 5.78 · @3.60
2.13Expected goals
1.53Barakaldo xG
0.60Real Avilés xG
54%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
0–17%
From our goals model: Barakaldo 1.5 – 0.6 Real Avilés expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Barakaldo to win✗
63%
1.60
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Barakaldo or draw✓
83%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barakaldo / FT Barakaldo✗
36%
2.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.51
–
Form
Barakaldo – last 6
LWLDLW
19 Sep
@ Racing Ferrol
0–1
L
11 Sep
vs Extremadura 1924
1–0
W
5 Sep
@ CD Coria
1–4
L
30 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
0–0
D
14 Aug
@ Portugalete
0–2
L
9 May
vs Mérida AD
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Real Avilés – last 6
DWLLWW
19 Sep
@ CD Coria
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Unionistas de Salamanca
3–1
W
6 Sep
@ Athletic Club II
1–2
L
28 Aug
vs Pontevedra
0–1
L
21 Aug
vs Sporting Gijón II
4–2
W
15 Aug
@ Mosconia
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Barakaldo and Real Avilés.
What is the prediction for Barakaldo vs Real Avilés?
Our pick is Barakaldo or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Barakaldo vs Real Avilés?
On our numbers Barakaldo have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Real Avilés 17%.
How many goals will there be in Barakaldo vs Real Avilés?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Barakaldo vs Real Avilés?
Our predicted score is Barakaldo 1–0 Real Avilés, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Barakaldo vs Real Avilés?
Barakaldo vs Real Avilés (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Lasesarre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
