Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Racing Ferrol to win @ 1.85 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultRacing Ferrol to win ✓65% · @1.85
Double chanceRacing Ferrol or draw ✓88% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓17% · fair 5.91
Racing Ferrol vs Barakaldo preview and prediction
The match
Barakaldo travel to Estadio Municipal da Malata in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Saturday 19 September (15:30 WAT) to face Racing Ferrol. Racing Ferrol are 6th with 17 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Barakaldo sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Racing Ferrol's last 5: WLDDD Most recently they beat Real Unión 3–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Barakaldo's last 5: WLDLW Most recently they beat Extremadura 1924 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.7 for Racing Ferrol and 0.6 for Barakaldo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 50%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Racing Ferrol 65%, draw 24%, Barakaldo 12%.
Safer route: Racing Ferrol or draw (88%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Racing Ferrol to win at 1.85 – 65% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Racing Ferrol 1–0 Barakaldo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Racing Ferrol65%fair 1.55 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.25
Barakaldo12%fair 8.51 · @4.00
2.33Expected goals
1.73Racing Ferrol xG
0.59Barakaldo xG
50%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–015%
1–110%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Racing Ferrol 1.7 – 0.6 Barakaldo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Ferrol to win✓
65%
1.55
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Racing Ferrol or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Half-time result
Racing Ferrol ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Ferrol / FT Racing Ferrol✗
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
17%
5.91
–
Form
Racing Ferrol – last 6
WLDDDD
13 Sep
vs Real Unión
3–2
W
6 Sep
@ Extremadura 1924
0–1
L
29 Aug
@ Arenas Getxo
1–1
D
13 Aug
vs Real Avilés
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Real Madrid II
2–2
D
17 May
vs Osasuna II
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Barakaldo – last 6
WLDLWL
11 Sep
vs Extremadura 1924
1–0
W
5 Sep
@ CD Coria
1–4
L
30 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
0–0
D
14 Aug
@ Portugalete
0–2
L
9 May
vs Mérida AD
2–0
W
1 May
@ Tenerife
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Racing Ferrol and Barakaldo.
What is the prediction for Racing Ferrol vs Barakaldo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Racing Ferrol vs Barakaldo?
On our numbers Racing Ferrol have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Barakaldo 12%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Ferrol vs Barakaldo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Racing Ferrol vs Barakaldo?
Our predicted score is Racing Ferrol 1–0 Barakaldo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Racing Ferrol vs Barakaldo?
Racing Ferrol vs Barakaldo (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal da Malata.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
