Value bet: Ponferradina to win @ 1.73 – our chance 62% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPonferradina to win ✓62% · @1.73
Double chancePonferradina or draw ✓85% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓17% · fair 6.04
Ponferradina vs Mérida AD preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División RFEF Group 1 sees Ponferradina take on Mérida AD on Saturday 19 September, kicking off at 17:45 (WAT). Ponferradina are 11th with 15 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Mérida AD sit 8th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Ponferradina's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to Deportivo La Coruña II 1–2 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mérida AD's last 5: LLWWL Most recently they lost to Mirandes 3–4 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Ponferradina arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Ponferradina and 0.6 for Mérida AD. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ponferradina 62%, draw 23%, Mérida AD 15%.
Safer route: Ponferradina or draw (85%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Ponferradina to win at 1.73 – 62% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Ponferradina 1–0 Mérida AD. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ponferradina62%fair 1.62 · @1.73
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.30
Mérida AD15%fair 6.80 · @4.33
2.30Expected goals
1.65Ponferradina xG
0.65Mérida AD xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Ponferradina 1.6 – 0.6 Mérida AD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ponferradina to win✓
62%
1.62
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Ponferradina or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ponferradina / FT Ponferradina✓
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
17%
6.04
–
Form
Ponferradina – last 6
LDWDWD
13 Sep
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
1–2
L
4 Sep
vs Lugo
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ UD Ourense
1–0
W
19 Aug
vs Real Madrid II
2–2
D
8 Aug
@ Marino de Luanco
3–0
W
1 Aug
vs Real Avilés
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mérida AD – last 6
LLWWLL
12 Sep
vs Mirandes
3–4
L
6 Sep
@ Cultural Leonesa
0–1
L
29 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruña II
1–0
W
14 Aug
vs Alcorcon
2–1
W
7 Aug
@ Leganes
0–3
L
25 Jul
@ Benfica B
0–4
L
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ponferradina and Mérida AD.
What is the prediction for Ponferradina vs Mérida AD?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ponferradina vs Mérida AD?
On our numbers Ponferradina have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mérida AD 15%.
How many goals will there be in Ponferradina vs Mérida AD?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ponferradina vs Mérida AD?
Our predicted score is Ponferradina 1–0 Mérida AD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Ponferradina vs Mérida AD?
Ponferradina vs Mérida AD (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
