Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD prediction & analysis
82%
Footrivo pick
Cultural Leonesa or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Cultural Leonesa to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCultural Leonesa to win ✓61% · @1.91
Double chanceCultural Leonesa or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓63% · @1.75
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓29% · fair 3.43
Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División RFEF Group 1 sees Cultural Leonesa take on Mérida AD on Sunday 6 September, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT). Cultural Leonesa are 14th with 13 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Mérida AD sit 8th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cultural Leonesa's last 5: DDWDD Most recently they drew with Barakaldo 0–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mérida AD's last 5: WWLLL Most recently they beat Deportivo La Coruña II 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 0.5 goals: 0.5 for Cultural Leonesa and 0.0 for Mérida AD. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 99% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cultural Leonesa 61%, draw 21%, Mérida AD 18%.
Safer route: Cultural Leonesa or draw (82%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (63%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Cultural Leonesa to win at 1.91 – 61% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cultural Leonesa or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Cultural Leonesa 0–0 Mérida AD. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cultural Leonesa61%fair 1.64 · @1.91
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @2.88
Mérida AD18%fair 5.57 · @3.90
0.50Expected goals
0.48Cultural Leonesa xG
0.02Mérida AD xG
37%Both score
1%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–061%
1–029%
2–07%
0–11%
3–01%
1–11%
From our goals model: Cultural Leonesa 0.5 – 0.0 Mérida AD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cultural Leonesa to win✓
61%
1.64
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Cultural Leonesa or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.75 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
99%
1.01
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
100%
1.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
80%
1.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
61%
1.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
29%
3.43
–
Form
Cultural Leonesa – last 6
DDWDDL
30 Aug
@ Barakaldo
0–0
D
21 Aug
@ Atlético Astorga
1–1
D
15 Aug
vs Salamanca UDS
5–0
W
8 Aug
@ Burgos
0–0
D
5 Aug
vs Real Avilés
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Athletic Club II
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Mérida AD – last 6
WWLLLL
29 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruña II
1–0
W
14 Aug
vs Alcorcon
2–1
W
7 Aug
@ Leganes
0–3
L
25 Jul
@ Benfica B
0–4
L
9 May
@ Barakaldo
0–2
L
24 Apr
@ Arenas Getxo
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cultural Leonesa and Mérida AD.
What is the prediction for Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD?
Our pick is Cultural Leonesa or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD?
On our numbers Cultural Leonesa have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Mérida AD 18%.
How many goals will there be in Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD?
We expect about 0.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 1% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD?
Our predicted score is Cultural Leonesa 0–0 Mérida AD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 0.5 goals in total.
When is Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD?
Cultural Leonesa vs Mérida AD (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
