Value bet: Real Avilés to win @ 3.25 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAthletic Club II to win ✓39% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.71
Athletic Club II vs Real Avilés preview and prediction
The match
Real Avilés travel to Lezama Facilities in the Primera División RFEF Group 1 on Sunday 6 September (17:15 WAT) to face Athletic Club II. Athletic Club II are 9th with 15 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Real Avilés sit 4th on 17 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Athletic Club II's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Zamora 1–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Real Avilés's last 5: LWWDL Most recently they lost to Pontevedra 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 0.8 for Athletic Club II and 0.7 for Real Avilés. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Athletic Club II 39%, draw 25%, Real Avilés 35%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Real Avilés to win at 3.25 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.95, above our fair price of 1.90, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Athletic Club II 0–0 Real Avilés. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Athletic Club II39%fair 2.54 · @2.05
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @2.90
Real Avilés35%fair 2.83 · @3.25
1.50Expected goals
0.79Athletic Club II xG
0.71Real Avilés xG
47%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–022%
1–018%
0–116%
1–113%
2–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Athletic Club II 0.8 – 0.7 Real Avilés expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Athletic Club II to win✓
39%
2.54
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
57%
1.74
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
29%
3.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.71
–
Form
Athletic Club II – last 6
DWWWLL
29 Aug
@ Zamora
1–1
D
18 Aug
@ Laredo
3–0
W
8 Aug
@ Amorebieta
1–0
W
1 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
2–0
W
19 Apr
vs Racing Ferrol
0–1
L
10 Apr
@ Cacereño
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Real Avilés – last 6
LWWDLD
28 Aug
vs Pontevedra
0–1
L
21 Aug
vs Sporting Gijón II
4–2
W
15 Aug
@ Mosconia
2–0
W
13 Aug
@ Racing Ferrol
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Racing Santander II
1–2
L
5 Aug
@ Cultural Leonesa
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Athletic Club II and Real Avilés.
What is the prediction for Athletic Club II vs Real Avilés?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.
Who will win Athletic Club II vs Real Avilés?
On our numbers Athletic Club II have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Real Avilés 35%.
How many goals will there be in Athletic Club II vs Real Avilés?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Athletic Club II vs Real Avilés?
Our predicted score is Athletic Club II 0–0 Real Avilés, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Athletic Club II vs Real Avilés?
Athletic Club II vs Real Avilés (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Lezama Facilities.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
