Value bet: Burgos to win @ 3.50 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLas Palmas to win ✗43% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.34
Las Palmas vs Burgos preview and prediction
The match
The Segunda División sees Las Palmas take on Burgos on Sunday 20 September, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at Gran Canaria. Las Palmas are 10th with 20 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Burgos sit 3rd on 24 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Las Palmas's last 5: WDLWW Most recently they beat Cadiz 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Burgos's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat AD Ceuta FC 3–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Las Palmas and 1.3 for Burgos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Las Palmas 43%, draw 22%, Burgos 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Burgos to win at 3.50 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.76, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Las Palmas 1–1 Burgos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Las Palmas43%fair 2.33 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.10
Burgos35%fair 2.88 · @3.50
2.70Expected goals
1.44Las Palmas xG
1.26Burgos xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Las Palmas 1.4 – 1.3 Burgos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Las Palmas to win✗
43%
2.33
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Las Palmas / FT Las Palmas✗
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.34
–
Form
Las Palmas – last 6
WDLWWL
12 Sep
@ Cadiz
1–0
W
4 Sep
vs Leganes
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Girona
2–5
L
22 Aug
@ AD Ceuta FC
2–0
W
16 Aug
vs Albacete
2–1
W
31 Jul
vs NEOM
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Burgos – last 6
WDDLWD
11 Sep
vs AD Ceuta FC
3–1
W
6 Sep
@ Oviedo
0–0
D
31 Aug
vs Real Sociedad II
2–2
D
23 Aug
@ Sporting Gijon
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Cordoba
3–2
W
8 Aug
vs Cultural Leonesa
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Las Palmas and Burgos.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Las Palmas vs Burgos?
On our numbers Las Palmas have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Burgos 35%.
How many goals will there be in Las Palmas vs Burgos?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Las Palmas vs Burgos?
Our predicted score is Las Palmas 1–1 Burgos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Las Palmas vs Burgos?
Las Palmas vs Burgos (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Gran Canaria.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
