Serie D · Brazil
São Luiz vs Velo Clube prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.92 · bookmaker 2.05 · Won ✓
Value bet: Velo Clube to win @ 3.60 – our chance 32% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: São Luiz 1.1 – 0.9 Velo Clube expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
São Luiz hold the edge on home soil with a 43% chance of winning, against 32% for Velo Clube.
São Luiz have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (1W 4D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. Velo Clube have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.1 for São Luiz, 0.9 for Velo Clube). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, São Luiz have won 0, Velo Clube have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 52% chance – the bookmaker price of 2.05 is better than our fair price of 1.92, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Velo Clube to win at 3.60 is our value angle (32% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | São Luiz to win ✓ | 43% | 2.34 | 2.10 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.40 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.92 | 2.05 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 62% | 1.63 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 66% | 1.53 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.19 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.05 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT São Luiz / FT São Luiz ✓ | 23% | 4.39 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.01 | – |
Form
São Luiz – last 6
| 4 Jul | @ Velo Clube | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Jun | @ Blumenau | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Jun | vs Blumenau | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Jun | vs Joinville | 3–1 | W |
| 31 May | @ Cascavel | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Mar | @ Novo Hamburgo | 1–1 | D |
Velo Clube – last 6
| 4 Jul | vs São Luiz | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Jun | @ Água Santa | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Jun | vs Água Santa | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Jun | vs CFRJ Maricá | 3–1 | W |
| 30 May | @ Sampaio Corrêa RJ | 0–1 | L |
| 23 May | vs XV de Piracicaba | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 4 Jul 2026 | Velo Clube v São Luiz | 2–1 |
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Imperatriz0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for São Luiz vs Velo Clube?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.05.
Who will win São Luiz vs Velo Clube?
On our numbers São Luiz have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Velo Clube 32%.
How many goals will there be in São Luiz vs Velo Clube?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is São Luiz vs Velo Clube?
São Luiz vs Velo Clube (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.