Serie D · Brazil · Estadio Antonio Moreno de Mello
Iguatu vs Maguary PE prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Iguatu to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Iguatu 1.6 – 0.6 Maguary PE expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Iguatu are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 15% for Maguary PE.
Iguatu have taken 11 points from their last 5 matches (3W 2D 0L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. Maguary PE have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.0 conceded. Iguatu come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.6 for Iguatu, 0.6 for Maguary PE). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (17%), 2–0 (14%), 0–0 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Iguatu have won 1, Maguary PE have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 5.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.28. For a bigger price, Iguatu to win at 1.95 is our value angle (62% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Iguatu to win ✓ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Iguatu or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.90 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.50 | 1.36 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.20 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Iguatu / FT Iguatu ✓ | 37% | 2.68 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 17% | 5.76 | – |
Form
Iguatu – last 5
| 4 Jul | @ Maguary PE | 3–2 | W |
| 27 Jun | vs Tuna Luso | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Jun | @ Tuna Luso | 2–1 | W |
| 7 Jun | @ Sampaio Correa | 1–0 | W |
| 30 May | vs Parnahyba | 2–2 | D |
Maguary PE – last 6
| 4 Jul | vs Iguatu | 2–3 | L |
| 27 Jun | @ Piauí | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Jun | vs Piauí | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Jun | @ ABC | 0–1 | L |
| 25 May | @ Laguna | 1–1 | D |
| 17 May | @ Central SC | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 4 Jul 2026 | Maguary PE v Iguatu | 2–3 |
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Imperatriz0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Iguatu vs Maguary PE?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Iguatu vs Maguary PE?
On our numbers Iguatu have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Maguary PE 15%.
How many goals will there be in Iguatu vs Maguary PE?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Iguatu vs Maguary PE?
Iguatu vs Maguary PE (Serie D) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Antonio Moreno de Mello.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.