Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.90 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.90Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultVelo Clube to win ✓62% · @1.90
Double chanceVelo Clube or draw ✓84% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.37
Velo Clube vs São Luiz preview and prediction
The match
São Luiz travel to Estadio Benito Agnelo Castellano in the Serie D on Saturday 4 July (23:00 WAT) to face Velo Clube.
Form guide
Velo Clube's last 5: DDWLD Most recently they drew with Água Santa 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
São Luiz's last 5: DDWDD Most recently they drew with Blumenau 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded.
São Luiz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Velo Clube and 0.6 for São Luiz. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Velo Clube 62%, draw 22%, São Luiz 16%.
Safer route: Velo Clube or draw (84%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.57.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Velo Clube to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.90, above our fair price of 1.62, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Velo Clube 1–0 São Luiz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Velo Clube62%fair 1.62 · @1.90
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @2.90
São Luiz16%fair 6.28 · @4.00
2.10Expected goals
1.51Velo Clube xG
0.58São Luiz xG
47%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
0–17%
From our goals model: Velo Clube 1.5 – 0.6 São Luiz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Velo Clube to win✓
62%
1.62
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Velo Clube or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Velo Clube / FT Velo Clube✗
36%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.37
–
Form
Velo Clube – last 6
DDWLDL
27 Jun
@ Água Santa
1–1
D
20 Jun
vs Água Santa
0–0
D
7 Jun
vs CFRJ Maricá
3–1
W
30 May
@ Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0–1
L
23 May
vs XV de Piracicaba
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Santos
0–7
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
São Luiz – last 6
DDWDDW
27 Jun
@ Blumenau
1–1
D
20 Jun
vs Blumenau
1–1
D
7 Jun
vs Joinville
3–1
W
31 May
@ Cascavel
0–0
D
7 Mar
@ Novo Hamburgo
1–1
D
2 Mar
vs Novo Hamburgo
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Velo Clube and São Luiz.
What is the prediction for Velo Clube vs São Luiz?
Our pick is Velo Clube to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.90.
Who will win Velo Clube vs São Luiz?
On our numbers Velo Clube have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and São Luiz 16%.
How many goals will there be in Velo Clube vs São Luiz?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Velo Clube vs São Luiz?
Our predicted score is Velo Clube 1–0 São Luiz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Velo Clube vs São Luiz?
Velo Clube vs São Luiz (Serie D) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Benito Agnelo Castellano.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.